后分层重要性采样
Post-stratified importance sampling
Yuling Yao, Sergei Tikhonov
AI 速读 基于摘要
借鉴调查抽样中的多层回归与后分层(MRP)思想,将高维重要性加权拆解为两个一维建模问题,提出后分层重要性采样(PIS)以改善估计精度与不确定性量化。
stat.ME · cs.LG · stat.CO
查看原文摘要
Importance sampling is a building block of modern statistical computing, but the weighted estimate is prone to high or infinite variance. Moreover, its empirical standard error is often unreliable, leaving importance sampling without practical uncertainty quantification. Motivated by multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) in survey sampling, we propose post-stratified importance sampling (PIS) for estimating target expectations from proposal draws. PIS reformulates arbitrarily high-dimensional weighting into two one-dimensional probabilistic modeling problems: regression for the conditional mean given the importance ratio and marginal density estimation for the importance ratio. Different modeling choices yield a family of PIS estimators, encompassing ordinary importance sampling as a special case. We develop a model-based implementation that combines one-dimensional Gaussian process regression for the conditional mean and score-informed heavy-tailed density estimation for the marginal law, using both the observed weights and the available density evaluations. We study the oracle gains of PIS and establish consistency under general and model-specific conditions. Simulations and applications to cross-validation demonstrate improvements in estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification.