Yanbin Yin, Chuyu Xu, Liqin Ye, Jing Peng, Chao Zhang
Quarterly earnings forecasting requires an agent to connect financial evidence to the income-statement line items that produce a company's reported earnings. We introduce EPSBench, a benchmark for studying this ability across 149 firm-quarters from 86 US companies. Agents read a fixed collection of filings, earnings-call transcripts, and news, then estimate company-specific income-statement drivers with cited evidence. A shared accounting calculator converts these estimates into GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS), providing a common basis for comparing forecast assumptions. We evaluate six models under a common harness, assessing point forecast error relative to date-matched analyst consensus and checking whether their prediction intervals achieve the stated coverage. Three models show no detectable paired difference in point forecast error from consensus, and three have higher error. Across all six models, nominal 80% intervals contain reported EPS in only 37--70% of runs that return an interval, and most misses fall above the upper bound because the forecasts run low. The driver records trace most of the error gap between models to operating-income estimates.
Yanbin Yin, Kun Zhou University of California, San Diego, Zhen Wang University of California, San Diego, Xiangdong Zhang New York University, Yifei Shao, Shibo Hao University of California, San Diego, Yi Gu University of California, San Diego, Jieyuan Liu 等 14 位作者
The recent explosion of large language models (LLMs), each with its own general or specialized strengths, makes scalable, reliable benchmarking more urgent than ever. Standard practices nowadays face fundamental trade-offs: closed-ended question-based benchmarks (MMLU) struggle with saturation as newer models emerge, while crowd-sourced leaderboards (Chatbot Arena) rely on costly and slow human judges. Recently, automated methods (LLM-as-a-judge) shed light on the scalability, but risk bias by relying on one or a few “authority” models. To tackle these issues, we propose Decentralized Arena (), a fully automated framework leveraging collective intelligence from all LLMs to evaluate each other. It mitigates single-model judge bias by democratic, pairwise evaluation, and remains efficient at scale through two key components: (1) a coarse-to-fine ranking algorithm for fast incremental insertion of new models with sub-quadratic complexity, and (2) an automatic question selection strategy for the construction of new evaluation dimensions. Across extensive experiments across 66 LLMs, attains up to 97% correlation with human judgements, while significantly reducing the cost.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表