Jeffrey Qin, Zhuangfei Gao, Wasu Top Piriyakulkij, Mia Radovanovic, Jessica Sommerville, Kevin Ellis, Marta Kryven
Children expertly construct mental models under uncertainty despite limited world knowledge. Which computational principles make this possible? We study this question in an interactive physical Box Task in which participants infer a latent cause through interaction with a stochastic and partially observed environment. The Box Task was originally designed to study children's puzzle-solving qualitatively. We contribute a computational analysis of behavior that formalizes the cognitive process by which children generate new hypotheses and respond to environmental uncertainty as inference unfolds. Our modeling framework is based on Bayesian particle-based inference, which maintains a small set of working hypotheses and continually generates new ones. We give two complementary implementations of hypothesis representations within this framework: (1) as constraints on evidence, and (2) as executable programs evaluated against evidence. Using the constraint-based formulation, we show that the model needs to account both for subjective reliability of evidence and online hypothesis generation to explain key signatures of children's behavior. Using the programmatic formulation, we show that hypotheses may take the form of partial compositional rules to guide information gathering when evidence interpretation is hard. The programmatic hypotheses are implemented using LLM-based program synthesis, evaluated across three prompt variants and several LLM backends, demonstrating robustness of our approach. Together, these results extend current models of children's inference to account for subjective reliability of evidence and open-ended hypothesis spaces, and provide a computational analysis of the form generated hypotheses may take in practice.
Scaling coding agents requires a continuing supply of executable data for training, benchmarking, and continuous evaluation. Each task must couple a realistic software state with a specification, development tools, and reliable verification. To expand this supply, we present Change2Task, a system grounded in repository history that converts merged pull requests (PRs) into verified tasks on healthy modern revisions of the same repository. It aligns historical evidence with evolved code, reconstructs task states through Patch Reversal, Code Mapping, or Agent Reconstruction, and validates the lifecycle from a healthy base to a task state and a restored state. By deriving multiple tasks grounded in developer evidence from maintained environments, Change2Task provides executable data for coding agent training and evaluation while reducing repeated environment setup, storage, and task construction effort. We evaluate five coding agent task families: Bug Fix, Feature Addition, Test Generation, Application Programming Interface (API) Migration, and Security Repair. Starting from 1,130 source changes eligible for construction, Change2Task achieves 79.6% verified task construction success across these task families. On a matched candidate set, it recovers 29.2% more verified tasks than a construction baseline based on PRs. Historical and reconstructed cases achieve 89.7% aggregate matched outcome agreement under agent evaluation, while reuse of modern bases reduces measured expenditure across the complete pipeline by 10.8%. Four matched studies examine construction stages, semantic review, branch consistency, and resource trade-offs. An industrial deployment further constructs 1,000 tasks from private PR histories and evaluates four models on a fixed 500-task cohort.