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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.14272

Federated Learning for Cross-Regional Epidemic Forecasting with Asynchronous Outbreaks

Ruibin Liu, Francisco Fernandes, Xuanfeng Li, Zige Liu, André Salgado, Chitin Hon, Zifeng Yang, Arlindo Oliveira 等 9 位作者

原文摘要

Objective: Epidemic outbreaks are often asynchronous across regions, yet collaborative forecasting is hampered by privacy laws and heterogeneous public health interventions. We developed and evaluated, as a proof of concept, a federated learning (FL) framework for cross-regional COVID-19 forecasting under asynchronous outbreaks among Guangdong, Macau, and Portugal, while maintaining data sovereignty. Methods: Using daily case data from WHO and China CDC for the three regions, whose outbreaks were asynchronous and interventions heterogeneous, we trained Long Short-Term Memory networks via FL for short-term forecasting, benchmarked against localized and centralized training using Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error. All experiments used the Flower FL framework with consistent hyperparameters across sites. Publicly available, aggregated case-count data were used so that the centralized benchmark could be computed as a reference. Results: The dataset comprised 1,233 daily observations (411 days) of new confirmed COVID-19 cases from November 24, 2021, to January 8, 2023. The earlier Omicron wave in Portugal supplied transmission dynamics that improved forecasts in the later-onset regions of Macau and Guangdong. The FL model achieved a normalized Root Mean Square Error of 0.028, an 88.3% improvement over the local model (0.240) and comparable to the centralized model, with network overhead mainly determined by model size and aggregation rounds. Conclusion: FL achieved short-term forecasting accuracy close to centralized training while maintaining data residency, with acceptable overhead. Leveraging asynchronous outbreaks across regions may offer a practical path to privacy-preserving collaborative forecasting, though prospective validation is required.

cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v4arXiv:2604.11748

LangFlow: Continuous Diffusion Rivals Discrete in Language Modeling

Yuxin Chen, Chumeng Liang, Hangke Sui, Ruihan Guo, Chaoran Cheng, Jiaxuan You, Ge Liu

原文摘要

Continuous diffusion has served as a foundation for high-fidelity, controllable, and few-step generation across continuous data modalities such as images, videos, and molecular structures. However, in language modeling, prior continuous diffusion language models (DLMs) lag behind discrete counterparts. Existing categorical and simplex-based approaches operate over extremely large and sparse language spaces, while prior embedding-space approaches avoid this sparsity but lack a well-selected design space. In this work, we close this gap with LangFlow by connecting embedding-space DLMs to Flow Matching, alongside three key innovations: (1) we derive a novel ODE-based NLL bound for principled evaluation of continuous flow-based language models; (2) we propose an information-uniform principle for setting the noise schedule, which motivates a learnable noise scheduler based on a Gumbel distribution; and (3) we revise prior training protocols by incorporating self-conditioning, which improves both likelihood and sample quality for embedding-space DLMs and behaves differently from its use in discrete diffusion. Putting everything together, LangFlow is competitive with top discrete DLMs on generative quality, reaching a generative perplexity of 92.3 on LM1B and 36.5 on OpenWebText. It also outperforms discrete counterparts on reasoning tasks like Sudoku. As the first continuous DLM shown to rival discrete diffusion in generative quality, LangFlow provides clear evidence that continuous diffusion is a promising paradigm for language modeling. Code: https://github.com/nealchen2003/LangFlow.

cs.CL · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v5arXiv:2603.19310

MemReward: Graph-Based Experience Memory for LLM Reward Prediction with Limited Labels

Tianyang Luo, Tao Feng, Zhigang Hua, Yan Xie, Shuang Yang, Ge Liu, Jiaxuan You

原文摘要

Reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning improves large language model (LLM) reasoning using reward signals on sampled rollouts. When reward labels are available for only a subset of rollouts, restricting policy updates to that subset leaves the remaining rollouts unused for policy optimization. Semi-supervised learning propagates labels from labeled to unlabeled samples, but existing methods either diffuse labels with fixed similarity weights or treat each sample independently, ignoring the relations among queries, thinking processes, and answers. We propose MemReward, a graph-based experience memory that propagates rewards to unlabeled rollouts during online policy optimization. MemReward stores queries and the rollouts (thinking processes and final answers) of an initial LLM policy as nodes of a heterogeneous graph connected by similarity and structural edges, and warms up a GNN on labeled rollouts to propagate rewards over this graph. During online RL fine-tuning, unlabeled rollouts are attached to the graph by query similarity, and the policy is updated with ground-truth rewards on labeled rollouts and GNN-predicted rewards on the rest. We evaluate MemReward on 13 benchmarks in mathematics, question answering, and code generation with verifiable rewards, and further with LLM-judge, human-preference, and continuous rewards. With ground-truth rewards on only 20% of rollouts, MemReward achieves 96.6% of the performance of fully supervised training (Oracle) on Qwen2.5-1.5B and 97.3% on Qwen2.5-3B, where it also outperforms label propagation and FixMatch-style self-training. It carries over to Llama backbones up to 8B and closely approaches Oracle on out-of-domain tasks.

cs.LG · cs.AI

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗