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arXiv 最近完成扫描:2026-11-16 01:34 · 全站最近入库:2026-11-14 15:09各信源进度 →

统计口径与数据新鲜度

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版本更新 · v2arXiv:2610.33771

An actively trained neural operator for near-explicit atmospheric chemistry

Zhi-Song Liu, Wenqing Peng, Ammar Kheder, Risto Makkonen, Michael Boy

原文摘要

Earth-system models simplify atmospheric chemistry into condensed mechanisms, because near-explicit mechanisms such as the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) are too costly to solve in every grid cell. Neural emulators could lift this limit, but most advance the chemistry in small time steps and cover only a few species or a reduced mechanism. Here we introduce FNO-MoE, a Fourier neural operator with a mixture of experts that predicts the full near-explicit chemical state over 30 minutes in a single call. The same network also guides its own training, using the disagreement among its experts to select the most informative box-model simulations. At equal cost, this active sampling yields a more accurate emulator than random or evenly spread sampling. Fine-tuning on longer trajectories keeps it stable over multi-hour runs in which models trained on short simulations diverge. The resulting emulator reproduces the evolution of thousands of species with high fidelity, remains accurate for unseen chemical compositions and runs orders of magnitude faster than the numerical solver. These results open a new direction for emulating complex atmospheric systems: neural operators that predict the full chemical state over long windows and choose their own training data. Training under changing meteorology is the next step towards bringing near-explicit chemistry into Earth-system models.

cs.AI · cs.LG

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2610.33482

Climate downscaling with likelihood functional flow matching

Zhi-Song Liu, Helmi Toropainen, Ammar Kheder, Michael Boy

原文摘要

Decisions about heat, frost and flooding are made locally, yet reanalyses and climate models resolve tens of kilometres. Generative downscalers add kilometre-scale detail with uncertainty, but are tied to a grid, costly to sample and lack a tractable likelihood. Here we introduce CD-FFM, a functional flow-matching model that treats the high-resolution field as a continuous random field that one model can query at any location and resolution. Its velocity acts pointwise, so spatial variability comes from a noise prior fitted to the observed spectrum and every observation has an exact likelihood. Downscaling ERA5 to 1 km daily temperature over Fennoscandia, CD-FFM lowers the continuous ranked probability score by 27-31% against regression and 12-18% against a forty-times larger neural operator in each of three test years, and outperforms a CorrDiff-style diffusion model while sampling about fifty times faster. The same model transfers to precipitation and makes large kilometre-scale ensembles affordable.

cs.LG