Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) extends large language models with external evidence, yet relevant evidence does not ensure that a generator can use it. Indiscriminate retrieval can degrade task performance while adding retrieval and long-context inference costs. Existing methods neither determine before large-scale execution whether a generator, task distribution, and retriever configuration is worth deploying nor diagnose multiple candidate retrievers under a shared budget. We introduce EviCast, a framework that forecasts retrieval value through interventional evidence-state decomposition. EviCast measures a generator's response to controlled evidence states once and combines this shared profile with the offline evidence-state distribution of each candidate retriever, yielding the end-to-end net utility and its 95% lower confidence bound without executing every RAG configuration. A state-refinement analysis characterizes when its binary and topology-aware instantiations are exact and when shared calibration is statistically more efficient than per-retriever calibration. In frozen evaluations, EviCast correctly decides all 14 HotpotQA retrieval configurations with a forecast error of 2.75 F1 points while reducing diagnostic generation calls by 80%, and it attains the lowest forecast error among seven predictors in the low-budget regime. Its topology-aware instantiation, EviCast-T, captures the complementarity between terminal and bridge evidence, correctly deciding all 16 configurations on MuSiQue and HotpotQA and 23 of 24 after prospective transfer to a third dataset. These results show that retrieval deployment depends on both evidence availability and the generator's ability to convert evidence structure into stable net utility. Code is available at https://github.com/YiboWang2002/EviCast.
Electroencephalography (EEG) provides a non-invasive means for neurological and mental health assessment, yet existing EEG models are typically developed for individual tasks and are difficult to unify across heterogeneous signal configurations and assessment objectives. Large language models (LLMs) offer a common interface for multiple tasks, but adapting heterogeneous EEG signals to a shared LLM raises a key challenge: how to preserve task-specific signal characteristics while enabling effective language-side parameter sharing. To address this problem, we propose EEG-HealthLLM, a unified and parameter-efficient framework for heterogeneous EEG health assessment. We introduce an Asymmetric Hierarchical Adaptation Strategy: task-specific EEG adapters preserve heterogeneous spatio-temporal dynamics, while a unified shared LoRA is injected into the LLM backbone (e.g., Phi-3) to capture shared high-level assessment semantics across tasks. We further establish EEG-HealthBench by reorganizing five existing EEG resources into paradigms covering epileptic seizure detection, major depressive disorder assessment, anxiety risk assessment, depressive symptom risk assessment, and emotional state assessment under a unified subject-independent protocol. Extensive experiments show that EEG-HealthLLM achieves an average balanced accuracy (BAC) of 69.58%, ranking first among the evaluated methods in both average BAC and macro-F1. Compared with independent single-task LoRA adaptation, it improves average BAC from 67.70% to 69.58% while reducing the aggregate language-side adapter footprint by 80.0%. Further analyses reveal task-dependent cross-task interactions and trade-offs, supporting the proposed hierarchical adaptation strategy. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/Marui-88/EEG-HealthLLM.