Brian Ko, Han Wang, Hejia Geng, Li Erran Li, Sherry Yang
AI research agents can propose, execute, and improve programs that solve machine learning tasks. However, executing each candidate program requires training and evaluating ML models, limiting how many candidates an agent can explore at each step. We introduce MLE-World, a world model finetuned from Qwen3.5-4B that predicts a program's terminal output (error traces, training logs, and validation scores) from its code and data description without executing it, together with a confidence score estimating the prediction's correctness. Because a prediction costs one inference call rather than a training run, MLE-World makes test time scaling (TTS) affordable for these agents. We build five TTS policies, guided by MLE-World, that compare several candidates per step by their predicted outputs: Sequential revision, Best-of-N, Pairwise judging, Fusion, and a UCB style rule that also adds an exploration bonus from this confidence score. Since predictions can be wrong, we run a candidate for real only when its confidence score is low. On 17 MLE-bench Lite tasks, MLE-World matches the real terminal output on 77.9% of held out programs, versus 41.1% for much larger prompted models. MLE-World guided TTS achieves up to 22.1% higher observed mean performance than the agent without a world model, with less real execution. Project webpage: https://mle-world.github.io/.
Blockchain forensics is adversarial and open-ended: money launderers split, swap, and bridge funds, cut their trail at mixers or custodial services, and change tactics from one incident to the next. Investigators must keep adapting their tracing in response. Yet the immutability of public ledgers preserves every recorded movement in public view, making much of the investigation independently verifiable. We introduce ABF-Bench, an interactive benchmark that makes evidence-backed fund tracing a verifiable agent task, in which every claimed movement must cite ledger records the agent retrieved. A case-to-task pipeline builds well-posed tasks across ledgers: conservative rules halt tracing wherever the records leave a continuation unresolved, and each task's reference graph is the answer those rules determine. Built from real laundering activity, the tasks combine multi-hop transfers, DeFi exchanges, cross-chain round trips, custodial and mixer deposits, and address poisoning. We also propose the ABF agent harness, built around a working memory, and evaluate it alongside general-purpose agents and fixed-order tracers. The harness reaches 75% edge recall, against 47% for Codex with the same model and 10% for Claude Code, which loses recall to overconfidence: it cites records it left unretrieved. Compared with fixed-order tracers, the harness acquires evidence faster than the best of them early in the budget and recognizes undisclosed custodial services that they walk past (89% vs. 0%), with 98% fidelity. However, agents tend to stop early and lose recall on larger tasks, which holds their final recall below the best tracer. Beyond exposing these gaps, ABF-Bench opens blockchain forensics to LLM agents as a verifiable domain, where the verdicts that score agents also offer potential training signals.