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统计口径与数据新鲜度

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版本更新 · v2arXiv:2605.30858

ForecastCompass:用自适应因子记忆引导智能体预测

ForecastCompass: Guiding Agentic Forecasting with Adaptive Factor Memory

Yurui Chang, Yongkang Du, Yuanpu Cao, Jinghui Chen, Lu Lin

AI 速读 基于摘要

提出基于自适应因子记忆的智能体预测框架 FoCo,通过分层任务分类组织预测经验,并利用因子记忆与推理记忆提升概率预测的准确性与校准。

cs.LG

查看原文摘要

Agentic forecasting is important for decision-making in dynamic environments, but it remains challenging because agents must reason from incomplete, time-limited evidence and produce calibrated probabilities before outcomes are resolved. Memory provides a natural mechanism for transferring experience from resolved forecasts to future prediction tasks. However, existing agent-memory methods are not tailored to forecasting, as they typically store past interactions, reflections, or factual associations without explicitly representing reusable predictive factors or calibration knowledge. We propose ForecastCompass (FoCo), an adaptive factor-based memory framework for agentic forecasting. FoCo organizes forecasting experience with a hierarchical forecasting-task taxonomy, enabling retrieval task-relevant forecasting knowledge. It maintains two complementary memory components: factor memory, which captures reusable predictive dimensions, and reasoning memory, which encodes probability updating, uncertainty handling, and calibration principles. Using retrospective analyses as learning signals, FoCo iteratively revises memory through a verbalized memory-revision procedure, enabling the agent to accumulate transferable forecasting knowledge over time. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX with GPT-5-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash show that FoCo improves both probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2605.21856

The Illusion of Reasoning: Exposing Evasive Data Contamination in LLMs via Zero-CoT Truncation

Yifan Lan, Yuanpu Cao, Hanyu Wang, Lu Lin, Jinghui Chen

原文摘要

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning abilities across a wide range of tasks, but data contamination undermines the objective evaluation of these capabilities. This problem is further exacerbated by malicious model publishers who use evasive, or indirect, contamination strategies, such as paraphrasing benchmark data to evade existing detection methods and artificially boost leaderboard performance. Current approaches struggle to reliably detect such stealthy contamination. In this work, we uncover a critical phenomenon: a model's generated reasoning steps actively mask its underlying memorization. Inspired by this, we propose the Zero-CoT Probe (ZCP), a novel black-box detection method that deliberately truncates the entire Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process to expose latent shortcut mappings. To further isolate memorization from the model's intrinsic problem-solving capabilities, ZCP compares the model's zero-CoT performance on the original benchmark against an isomorphically perturbed reference dataset. Furthermore, we introduce Contamination Confidence, a metric that quantifies both the likelihood and severity of contamination, moving beyond simple binary classifications. Extensive experiments on both previously identified contaminated models and specially fine-tuned contaminated models demonstrate that ZCP robustly detects both direct and evasive data contamination. The code for ZCP is accessible at https://github.com/Yifan-Lan/zero-cot-probe.

cs.LG · cs.AI

首次观测 · 记录 #1ACL Anthology · ACL 2026:acl:2026.acl-long.1901ACL Anthology · ACL 2026

GenPT: Beyond Self-Report for Reliable LLM Psychometrics via Generative Projective Testing

Ming Wang Singapore Management University and Northeastern University, Shuang Wu Northeastern University, Bixuan Wang, Lu Lin, Yuxin Chen Central University of Finance and Economics, Xiaocui Yang Northeastern University, Daling Wang, Shi Feng Northeastern University, China 等 10 位作者

原文摘要

Self-report questionnaires remain the default tool for probing the psychological characteristics of Large Language Model (LLM) agents, yet classical instruments (BFI, BDI, MBTI, BSS) inherit three well-known threats under LLMs: contamination from training corpora, directional bias under social-desirability framing, and limited responsiveness to context beyond the item text. We ask whether a projective paradigm can be adapted into a usable psychometric tool for LLM agents. We introduce GenPT (Generative Projective Testing), which reformulates TAT, Rorschach, and SCT with newly generated stimuli and organises assessment as a three-stage pipeline (Behavior Collection \to Interpretation \to Diagnosis) grounded in SCORS-G and a Simplified Rorschach Analysis System. On personality traits (Big Five, MBTI) and mental-health risks (depression, suicide ideation), questionnaires exhibit systematic directional shifts under social-desirability framing, most strongly on suicide ideation, whereas GenPT’s collected behavioral patterns stay near the symmetric baseline; under a longitudinal counselling context, GenPT-based depression assessment shifts by roughly an order of magnitude more than its questionnaire counterpart. Questionnaires remain competitive on clean-persona trait tasks where items align lexically with the persona description. Overall, GenPT complements rather than replaces self-report when contamination resistance, bias asymmetry, and context sensitivity matter. Code and stimuli: https://github.com/sci-m-wang/GenPT.

cs.CL

Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表