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版本更新 · v3arXiv:2610.37161HF 社区推荐

WorkFactory: Turning Professional Intents into Executable Work for Scalable Agent Training

Ziyang Zeng, Tingyang Chen, Jia Deng, Qiyao Wang, Shuo Tang, Yike Yang, Tao Ren, Wayne Xin Zhao 等 13 位作者

原文摘要

Scaling supervised fine-tuning for working agents requires not only broad coverage of professional tasks, but also expert demonstrations that faithfully carry out professional workflows to completion. However, missing or inconsistent task information can disrupt expert demonstrations, weakening the resulting supervision. We introduce WorkFactory, a scalable task-construction framework that turns professional intents into executable task environments through hybrid intent sourcing, semantic workflow planning, and execution-based repair. Starting from these intents, WorkFactory constructs a Semantic Workflow Graph that explicitly represents information requirements, dependencies, and locations within the task environment. The graph guides the instantiation of task environments, while an adversarial execution-refinement loop exposes missing or inconsistent information and steers targeted repairs that preserve the original intent. Using WorkFactory, we construct 112,686 tasks spanning 612 occupations and train the WorkPilot family at 4B, 27B, and 35B-A3B scales on the resulting teacher trajectories. All three models improve over their respective base models across four professional-work benchmarks, with WorkPilot-35B-A3B rising from 879 to 1565 Elo on GDPval-AA v2.1. Scaling experiments with up to 110k tasks further show that larger models benefit more from additional task data but exhibit diminishing returns at smaller data scales, while WorkPilot's long-horizon execution evolves from verbose trajectories toward more efficient task completion. Controlled component studies quantify the negative effects of task-environment defects on downstream performance and show how semantic workflow planning and execution-based repair yield downstream gains through improved task-environment quality. The subset of data are available at https://github.com/IQuestLab/WorkFactory.

cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.40362HF 社区推荐

你的学习率调度可能并不有原则:权重归一化训练中的有效学习率调度

Your LR Schedule May Not Be Principled: Effective Learning Rate Scheduling in Weight-Normalized Training

Qifan Yu, Xinyu Ma, Xingyan Bin, Di He

AI 速读 基于摘要

论文指出权重归一化训练的收益主要来自有效学习率轨迹而非归一化本身,并提出以有效学习率为调度对象的 AIR 调度。

cs.LG

查看原文摘要

Weight-normalized (WN) training is emerging as a compelling alternative to conventional weight decay (WD), with recent studies reporting substantial pretraining loss gains. We show that these gains are driven primarily by the induced effective learning rate (ELR) trajectory rather than by normalization alone. Matching ELR trajectories largely collapses the training loss dynamics of WN and WD. Schedule design should therefore target ELR rather than the nominal learning rate (LR) alone. Building on this principle, we propose AIR (Affine Inverse-square-Root decay), which combines a theoretically derived $1/\sqrt{t}$ decay with an affine adjustment to satisfy prescribed peak and terminal LRs over a finite training horizon. We further identify late-stage ELR scheduling as a key source of its gains, because a shared late schedule attenuates the effect of earlier LR choices. Experiments on 128 B-token Mixture-of-Experts pretraining demonstrate that AIR outperforms cosine and other candidate schedules in training loss, downstream performance, and hyperparameter robustness, reducing terminal training loss by approximately 0.01 relative to cosine at matched cumulative LR. Applying the same ELR trajectory to WD reproduces the corresponding training dynamics, showing that the benefits extend beyond fixed-norm training and establishing ELR as the principled scheduling object.

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2610.33005HF 社区推荐

OpenEBFM: Energy-based Foundation Models Are Scalable Architecture

Yuan Pu, Yudong Lu, Ting Wang, Zhicong Hong, Qinuo Li, Xuansheng Wu, Na Zou, Xia Hu 等 9 位作者

原文摘要

Energy-based models have shown promising properties for domain-specific tasks but remain challenging in modeling general-purpose scenarios. To bridge this gap, we design energy-steered models (ESMs) for foundational language modeling. ESMs integrate energy steering and token generation within a single architecture to leverage the energy-guided search to refine token generation. Specifically, ESMs first optimize a latent state over the energy landscape, then leverages the refined latent state for token generation. By performing such energy-guided pre-training on large-scale corpora, ESMs learn generally effective energy landscape where favorable tokens correspond to lower energy values. To explore the scaling behavior of ESMs, we pre-train ESMs on three large-scale corpora, then evaluate across 26 downstream tasks spanning a broad range of domains. Our results demonstrate that ESMs have promising scaling behaviors with increasing model size and training data, and outperform GPTs on most downstream tasks. These findings highlight ESMs as a promising architecture for large-scale pre-training and general purpose problem solving. We fully release the model weights and training infrastructure to enable the community to completely reproduce and extend our results. GitHub: https://github.com/datamllab/openebfm HuggingFace: https://huggingface.co/collections/guan-wang/openebfm

cs.CL · cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.38342HF 社区推荐

Investor's Last Exam: Can AI Agents Do Equity Investment Without Seeing the Future?

Huangfei Jiang, Anning Hu, Kai Sheng, Yuchen Cai, Rui Ge, Xiangyu Kong, Jianghao Lin, Shuzi Chen 等 10 位作者

原文摘要

Financial agents must form forecasts and investment judgments from decision-time evidence, with predictions evaluated against subsequent outcomes. Existing benchmarks assess financial knowledge, research workflows, or forecasting, but evaluating the full research process requires a strictly frozen information set and professional evaluation criteria. We introduce Investor's Last Exam (ILE), an equity-research benchmark led by experienced buy-side investors and fund managers. Its three components are a versioned financial database spanning 3.43 million document versions and nine source categories, supplemented by structured market data, with validated timestamps governing retrieval and computation; a task taxonomy organized around professional analyst deliverables; and an expert-led framework linking scoring criteria to sources, calculations, and assumptions through financial dependency graphs. Evaluation spans 86 assignments and jointly assesses research quality, forecast accuracy, and simulated investment performance. GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5.5 lead overall at 68.1 and 66.9 out of 100, yet even Astra scores only 52.5 on Forecast & Model. Our results show that even state-of-the-art models fail to translate overall research capability into predictive performance. ILE shifts the evaluation unit from isolated capabilities to the evidence--assumption--judgment chain, allowing researchers to locate where analytical advantages fail to translate into forecasts and investment judgments, and providing a traceable, diagnostic foundation for training and evaluating financial agents.

cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.37786HF 社区推荐

WebAnything: From the Wild Web to Scalable Agent Environments

Tianci Xie, Zikun Cai, Chaoyun Zhang, Pinxue Guo, Bingxuan Li, Rui Zheng, Hang Yan

原文摘要

Web agents require diverse, executable, and resettable website environments for reproducible training and evaluation. Human-assisted mirrors demand per-site engineering, while generative construction can diverge from specified real websites. Capture-and-replay preserves observations, with interaction coverage constrained by captured content and replay capabilities. We present WebAnything, a fully automated framework that reconstructs source-grounded, reusable Web environments from real URLs without per-site manual implementation or repair after initial setup and authorization. An Explorer-Builder collects browser-observable structures, resources, and interaction outcomes; an independent verifier checks frozen candidates and guides local repair or targeted source recapture. We construct 244 website artifacts across 14 application domains and 53 categories, supporting 12,984 executed and accepted tasks. Compared with human-assisted WebHarbor, WebAnything achieves higher aggregate scores on three fidelity metrics, with 12 wins, two ties, and no losses in a blind audit. Fine-tuning Qwen3.5-9B on 5,856 interaction trajectories improves REAL success by 9.9 percentage points, Odysseys-Easy Rubric Avg and Task Avg by 6.25 and 6.32 percentage points, and WebArena-Verified Overall success by 13.33 percentage points under the fixed harness. Code: https://github.com/china-qijizhifeng/Web-Anything

cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.37175HF 社区推荐

MLE-World: Predicting Machine Learning Experiment Outcomes with a Learned World Model

Brian Ko, Han Wang, Hejia Geng, Li Erran Li, Sherry Yang

原文摘要

AI research agents can propose, execute, and improve programs that solve machine learning tasks. However, executing each candidate program requires training and evaluating ML models, limiting how many candidates an agent can explore at each step. We introduce MLE-World, a world model finetuned from Qwen3.5-4B that predicts a program's terminal output (error traces, training logs, and validation scores) from its code and data description without executing it, together with a confidence score estimating the prediction's correctness. Because a prediction costs one inference call rather than a training run, MLE-World makes test time scaling (TTS) affordable for these agents. We build five TTS policies, guided by MLE-World, that compare several candidates per step by their predicted outputs: Sequential revision, Best-of-N, Pairwise judging, Fusion, and a UCB style rule that also adds an exploration bonus from this confidence score. Since predictions can be wrong, we run a candidate for real only when its confidence score is low. On 17 MLE-bench Lite tasks, MLE-World matches the real terminal output on 77.9% of held out programs, versus 41.1% for much larger prompted models. MLE-World guided TTS achieves up to 22.1% higher observed mean performance than the agent without a world model, with less real execution. Project webpage: https://mle-world.github.io/.

cs.LG · cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.36456HF 社区推荐

LociArt: A Unified Paradigm for Free-Style Local Video Stylization

Yuxuan Chen, Feng Xie, Jiagao Hu, Fuhao Li, Zepeng Wang, Fei Wang, Daiguo Zhou

原文摘要

Video stylization typically transforms entire scenes, while local artistic editing requires precise region--style association, spatial control, and temporal consistency. We introduce LociArt, a unified paradigm for free-style local video stylization that explicitly specifies where to stylize and what style to apply while preserving non-target content. At its core, GRNStyle builds on Generative Refinement Networks (GRN) and introduces a polar style-aware mask that embeds style identities as equal-norm directions within selected regions. Complementary representation--geometry conditioning combines encoded mask features with raw-mask spatial support, integrating spatiotemporal context with geometric control. To provide paired supervision, we develop an automated pipeline combining global stylization, video object removal, matting, and compositing, and construct the LociArt-100K Dataset with 100K local stylization pairs. We further establish the LociArt Benchmark, comprising 80 source videos and 84 target masks covering 168 foreground/background stylization cases, with a Style Prototype Similarity (SPS) evaluation scheme for regional style quality and complementary measures of non-target preservation and temporal consistency. Experiments show that GRNStyle outperforms existing methods in regional style quality and spatial control while maintaining strong temporal consistency. Qualitative examples further illustrate joint stylization of multiple regions with the same or different learned styles, despite training only on single-region, single-style pairs. Together, these components provide a unified foundation for learning and evaluating controllable local video stylization. Project page: https://higherhu.github.io/lociart/.

cs.CV · cs.AI · cs.MM

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.36420HF 社区推荐

SO-101 Bench: Accessible Spatial Manipulation

Truman Hickok

原文摘要

Low-cost arms such as the SO-101 have become the most common entry point to robot learning, yet no released policy performs spatially constrained, language-conditioned tasks on them out of the box, and existing SO-101 benchmarks run only on physical hardware with simple tasks and few held-out objects. We introduce SO-101 Bench, a simulated benchmark for language-conditioned spatial manipulation built on an Isaac Lab digital twin of a real SO-101 setup. It has four tasks scored as five families, 138 objects in seen, unseen-instance and unseen-class splits, 916 evaluation episodes with subsets for held-out appearances, rotate-to-fit planning and occlusion memory, and 3,629 simulated demonstrations on which every learned policy is fine-tuned under an equal compute budget. The twin ranks policies as the real robot does: five policies trained without real data, four VLAs and an LLM agent, keep their exact ranking when the same weights run on the physical arm in an unseen environment with unseen objects (Spearman rho = 1.00, MMRV = 0.000), although simulation overestimates success. Across nine VLAs and world-action models, the best learned policies score near 61%, with spatial placement, unseen object classes and rotate-to-fit planning remaining open. An LLM agent that writes code and hands grasping to a learned policy scores 83.2%, and an ablation shows that this lead comes from the choice of harness and the choice of language model.

cs.CV

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.36192HF 社区推荐

Beyond the Estimate: Wiener-Informed Decoding for Easier Training of Pixel-Space Flow Models

Ziqiao Wang, Yang You

原文摘要

Learning velocity fields directly in pixel space is difficult and slow. We show that coarse second-order image statistics can ease this task: frozen Wiener estimates improve velocity learning, with gains extending beyond the linear predictions they explicitly provide. Moreover, we observe similar but complementary gains from frozen bases and pixel decoding. These observations motivate Wiener-informed Decoding (WiD), which uses statistical knowledge both for direct prediction and to organize decoder computation without modifying native blocks. WiD combines a trainable Wiener prediction path with coefficient interfaces that inject features into the native decoder and return its predicted coefficient corrections, with these components initialized with data statistics. All introduced parameters, including the spectrum and coordinate transforms, are trained jointly under the original pixel-space velocity objective. Across model scales and decoder architectures, WiD accelerates training and improves generation quality with modest parameter overhead. It also yields smoother gradient trajectories and remains effective with representation alignment. WiD improves class-conditional and text-to-image generation across different resolutions. On ImageNet 256 x 256, PixelDiT-XL with WiD reaches FID 1.53 after 500 epochs, achieving comparable quality to PixelDiT with 37.5% fewer training epochs. Statistical denoisers contribute beyond the estimate: their computational structure can also ease pixel-space training.

cs.CV · cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.36022HF 社区推荐

Learning and Reasoning with Geometry: How Generation Helps Spatial Understanding

Rui Yang, Yanwei Li, Sili Chen, Jingjia Huang, Yi Lin, Hengshuang Zhao

原文摘要

Image and video generators can produce spatially consistent visual content, but how to use this capability to improve spatial understanding remains underexplored. We study this problem from two perspectives: geometric supervision during training and explicit geometric evidence during inference. To this end, we introduce a unified geometric understanding and generation model (GeoUG) that integrates depth and multi-view generation with spatial understanding. First, we design a multi-scale depth codec that enables metric-depth generation using a pretrained visual autoencoder, and show that joint training yields task-dependent gains in spatial understanding. Second, we introduce 3DCueBench to control geometric difficulty while balancing selected 2D cues, and find that generated depth provides larger reasoning gains on questions requiring fine-grained geometric discrimination. Building on this finding, we develop adaptive interleaved reasoning, in which GeoUG first drafts an answer and then decides whether to generate geometric evidence to confirm or revise it. We train this decision through reinforcement learning, balancing accuracy gains over retaining the draft against generation cost. GeoUG achieves circular accuracies of 97.9%, 90.8%, and 94.2% on CV-Bench-3D, 3DCueBench, and DA-2K with fewer generation calls than always generating.

cs.CV

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34714HF 社区推荐

SearchHorizonBench: A Benchmark for Search Value in AI Agents

Jingjie Ning, Xueqi Li, Yibo Kong

原文摘要

AI agents must decide when another search is worth its cost. Answer-success probabilities capture question difficulty, while this decision requires estimating the additional benefit of search. We introduce SearchHorizonBench, a benchmark for learning and evaluating search value from execution experience. Paired continuations and repeated executions separate expected search gain from generation noise and connect prediction quality to decision utility. The resource contains 45,632 executions across 3,168 questions. On 1,632 held-out questions, historical calibration reduces Brier error by 16.2%, with the improvement concentrated in success-level information. Search gains have a standard deviation of 21.4 percentage points, and tested historical estimators explain less than 2% of this variance in point estimates. Matched-configuration learning curves probe this distinction across training scales. At the reference token price, free selection observations yield a 2.49-point utility opportunity over the best constant action, driven primarily by gain information. Reusable histories, frozen splits, strong baselines and scoring tools provide a common foundation for developing and evaluating value-aware search agents.

cs.AI · cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34491HF 社区推荐

What Effort Level Should I Choose? On the Economics of Reasoning Effort in LLM Agents

Kaiser Sun, Yongchan Kwon, Zain Hasan, Shang Zhu, Kaitlyn Zhou, Federico Bianchi

原文摘要

Generative models increasingly expose a reasoning effort setting that lets users scale inference-time compute, trading higher cost for potentially improved performance. Users must choose an effort level before knowing whether extra reasoning will help, and even a successful run does not reveal whether the effort purchased was necessary. Reasoning effort is therefore a credence good: buyers observe the outcome but cannot assess the marginal value of the computation they paid for. In this work, we measure the counterfactual effect of effort levels on both proprietary and open-weight models on four benchmarks, spanning single-call reasoning and long-horizon agentic tasks. Effort, it turns out, does not consistently preserve tasks that lower effort solves, can overspend, and can change trajectory behavior. First, we find that although higher effort can raise accuracy in aggregate, it frequently fails on tasks that lower effort solved. Second, on the subset of easy tasks that every effort level solves, higher effort is generally more costly, with the highest effort level costing up to 42x as much as the lowest. Lastly, effort changes not only how many tokens are used, but also how agents solve tasks: at higher effort, agents verify their own work more heavily and more often search for solutions than work through problems directly, both of which lengthen trajectories without necessarily altering the outcome. These findings show that naively choosing the highest level is not only cost-inefficient but also offers no guarantee of the best instance-level performance. A simple alternative, starting at the lowest effort and escalating only after a verified failure, matches or improves on fixed top effort across all models and benchmarks at lower cost for most proprietary models.

cs.AI · cs.CL

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.34186HF 社区推荐

HuGe: Scaling Humanoid Generalist Vision-Language-Action Models with Egocentric Experience

Yang Liu, Jiacheng Liu, Hengtao Li, Yuheng Huang, Zijian Yang, Ji Dai, Maoxin Wang, Yi Gao 等 17 位作者

原文摘要

Extending Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) to humanoid robots requires coordinated whole-body control and diverse demonstrations that are costly to collect in real-world scenarios. Although egocentric human demonstrations provide a complementary source of task experience, differences in visual embodiment and missing robot proprioception complicate transfer to humanoid policies. To address these challenges, we introduce HuGe, a family of Humanoid Generalist VLAs pre-trained on over 2,000 hours of egocentric human and robot data. Specifically, HuGe employs three existing representative VLA architectures to predict latent motion tokens for a pretrained whole-body controller, together with hand-control signals. Based on this, we introduce a three-stage training pipeline that combines egocentric pre-training, humanoid adaptation, and downstream fine-tuning. To facilitate transfer across embodiments, we construct pseudo-proprioceptive states through simulation playback during pre-training and modify arm appearance in egocentric observations through re-rendering during downstream fine-tuning. With this pipeline, HuGe achieves the state-of-the-art on simulation benchmark HumanoidArena. Furthermore, real-world experiments on the Unitree G1 indicate that augmenting robot demonstrations with visually adapted egocentric demonstrations significantly increases success on a pick-and-drop task.

cs.RO

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.30435HF 社区推荐

Self-Assessment Reinforcement Learning for Search-State Awareness in Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models

Taewhoo Lee, Minju Song, Jungwoo Park, Chanwoong Yoon, Junha Jung, Hyeon Hwang, Sanghoon Lee, Minbyul Jeong 等 9 位作者

原文摘要

Recent advances in search agents have enabled large language models to tackle complex tasks by retrieving and synthesizing external information. However, existing search agents often lack search-state awareness, i.e., the ability to recognize what information has been obtained and what remains missing, leading to hallucinated reasoning and prematurely terminated search. To address this limitation, we propose Self-Assessment Reinforcement Learning (SARL), a reinforcement learning framework in which models learn to recognize their own search state during training and improve their search behavior accordingly, without requiring additional assessment at test time. SARL achieves this through a dual reward design that captures the corrective effect of each assessment while penalizing excessive reliance on it, jointly encouraging effective and efficient search trajectories. Under this setup, SARL achieves a 24.3% relative improvement over the strongest baseline, with average gains of 35.9% on multi-hop reasoning and 27.9% on deep research benchmarks against the strongest per-benchmark baselines. SARL further surpasses methods built on auxiliary supervision or multi-agent coordination, despite operating as a standalone RL framework with no inference-time scaffolding. Beyond final performance, SARL maintains training stability under extended search horizons, a regime where existing methods consistently degrade, enabling sustained gains as task complexity grows.

cs.CL · cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.29003HF 社区推荐

T-DIG: Text-Conditioned Diversity for Image Generation

Simran Khanuja, Rohit Gandikota, Gaurav Parmar, Graham Neubig

原文摘要

Text-to-image (T2I) platforms typically return several images per prompt so users can explore different visual interpretations and choose one that matches their intent. However, T2I models are usually optimized for single-image quality which comes at a cost of multi-image diversity, limiting this exploration. Diversity is also contextual: one user wants variations in background, while another wants them in artistic style, and the same user may later want variations in clothing. The generated images should differ along whatever axis the user cares about. In this paper, we introduce T-DIG, a text-conditioned diversity framework for image generation and editing. T-DIG is an iterative framework comprising multiple modules that lets users type prompts, inspect default generations, request variations using natural language, and continue refining outputs until they're satisfied. At its core, T-DIG uses an LLM policy that produces K axis-conditioned prompts or edit instructions for a frozen generator or editor. We train this policy with GRPO using a text-conditioned diversity reward and alignment penalties. Because the image generator remains frozen, T-DIG applies to open-weight, distilled, and proprietary models. We also release the first dataset for text-conditioned prompt diversity in image generation, with the training and validation splits built from human-written axes and a test set drawn from real user interactions with T-DIG. T-DIG far exceeds baselines in improving text-conditioned diversity, while preserving base-prompt alignment across a variety of metrics and human judgements. We show that user-directed diversity exploration can be added to a wide range of image generation models, open and closed, without the need to access their weights. Website: https://image-study.org/t-dig/

cs.CV

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.33066HF 社区推荐

OvisOCR3 Technical Report

Yu Xia, Yinglun Li, Yuhui Chen, Jinlong Huang, Yuyang Wanyan, Shengze Shi, Yifei Song, Yue Duan 等 15 位作者

原文摘要

We introduce OvisOCR3, a 0.8B model for a broad range of OCR-related tasks. OvisOCR3 unifies document parsing, general OCR, key information extraction (KIE), document figure captioning, and cross-page table reconstruction in a single model. We train the model on real and synthetic data through continued pretraining and use domain-balanced mid-training to balance supervision across tasks with different data volumes and response lengths. Multi-teacher on-policy distillation transfers expertise from five domain-specific 4B teachers into the shared model, followed by mixed-task reinforcement learning with domain-specific rewards. We compare OvisOCR3 with general-purpose vision-language models and specialized OCR models on public and in-house benchmarks covering all five task families. In these comparisons, it achieves an overall score of 96.74 on OmniDocBench v1.6 and the highest overall scores on PureDocBench, Real5-OmniDocBench, and MDPBench. On OCRBench v2, it ranks first, scoring 65.9 and 61.3 on the English and Chinese splits, respectively. It also outperforms the baselines on OCRBench and all four KIE benchmarks. On DocFigCapBench, it achieves the highest localization F1 and a caption score close to that of Qwen3.8-Max. For cross-page tables, it leads in Relation F1 on CrossTabBench and truncated-table TEDS on MPDocBench-Parse. These results demonstrate that a compact 0.8B model can achieve strong performance across diverse OCR-related tasks. OvisOCR3 is available at https://huggingface.co/ATH-MaaS/OvisOCR3.

cs.CV · cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.22684HF 社区推荐

AlphaBet: Reinforcement Learning for LLM Event Forecasting Agents

Liqin Ye, Rongzhi Zhang, Xin Liu, Zheng Li, Yuan He, Qingyu Yin, Priyanka Nigam, Chao Zhang

原文摘要

Forecasting an unresolved event requires finding relevant evidence and deciding how strongly it supports each outcome. Yet outcome-based training of Large Language Model (LLM) forecasters often begins with preassembled evidence at a single prediction date, leaving evidence acquisition outside the learning loop. We introduce AlphaBet, an agentic reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains a single LLM policy to search, reason, and report probabilities across multiple pre-resolution dates. Each dated forecast is scored by a proper scoring rule against the eventual outcome, allowing one resolved event to supervise decisions under different information states. We decompose forecasting regret into an evidence-acquisition gap and a probability-reporting gap, and show that Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)'s standard-deviation normalization can distort the reporting target under multi-class proper scores. On GLM-4.5-Air, AlphaBet reduces the Brier score from 0.731 to 0.626 on Forecast-Dojo and from 0.612 to 0.528 on FutureX. Controlled ablations attribute these gains to multi-date training and show that they come from improvements in both information acquisition and probability reporting. Our empirical results validate that GRPO's std normalization degrades proper-scoring-rule performance while leaving top-outcome accuracy largely unchanged.

cs.LG · cs.AI