Shang Gao, Franz Götz-Hahn, Konrad Doll, Bernhard Sick
Vulnerable road user (VRU) prediction must operate under partial observability and distribution shift, so reliable uncertainty matters alongside accuracy. Masked pretraining is attractive in this setting because it naturally exposes the model to missing content during self-supervision, but existing time-series masked autoencoding methods are typically deterministic and do not constrain how confidence should change with observability. We introduce eCoMAE, an evidential masked pretraining method for multivariate time series that explicitly aligns predictive evidence with what is observed. eCoMAE combines block-wise time-step masking with a Normal-Inverse-Gamma decoder and three observability-aware mechanisms: uncertainty-weighted mean consistency on positions visible in both a masked view and a reference pass, evidence suppression on masked positions, and representation consistency across stochastic masks. On IMPTC benchmark for VRU intention prediction under leave-one-environment-out weather shift, eCoMAE improves the strongest baseline from 0.7971 to 0.8068 in OOD accuracy and from 0.0718 to 0.0648 in OOD AURC. Additional evaluation on pedestrian trajectory forecasting across IMPTC, Waymo, nuScenes, and inD further yields the best fine-tuning MSE on all four datasets. These results show that observability-aligned evidential pretraining improves reliability under shift and remains effective beyond the primary benchmark.
An uncertainty estimate is meaningful only if its semantics can be tied to observable predictive behavior. Normal-Inverse-Gamma (NIG) evidential regression provides a structured decomposition of predictive variability into data-scale and predictive-mean components, but marginal likelihood does not identify their allocation. We address this semantic ambiguity in masked representation learning. MORSE (Masked Observability for Reliable Structured Encoding) predicts the same hidden target under controlled changes in visible context and uses normalized cross-context variation to ground predictive-mean uncertainty, while a Gaussian objective learns the conditional mean and data scale. The normalized variation plays the role of the NIG factor $1/ν$, which the marginal leaves unidentified; this yields a policy-relative observability variance that measures dependence on visible evidence, distinct from variation induced by resampling the training set. On a Gaussian-process benchmark with a contextual reference built from analytic Bayes conditional means, MORSE has the lowest log-variance error among compared evidential, ensemble, and dropout estimators in all nine tested settings, while the estimator closest to training-set variation perturbs the model rather than its context in every setting, so the two references separate the estimators empirically. MORSE amortizes observability estimation into one forward pass per observation state. On a heteroscedastic pulse benchmark, its predictor's cross-context variance approaches a large-sample reference as training data increase. MORSE also improves low-label transfer on PTB-XL and in-distribution trajectory prediction on IMPTC.
Self-improving AI systems can revise the designs that govern their own behavior. Yet existing approaches center improvement on selected parent agents and their evolutionary experience, leaving the broader population largely underused. We identify a substantial gap between population coverage (i.e., the tasks solved by at least one evolved variant) and the performance of the best individual agent. This gap shows that useful capabilities and diagnostic evidence emerge across the population without being consolidated into its leading agents. These observations motivate the view from nowhere, a principle for agent evolution: an agent should be improved by interpreting its behavior through population-wide patterns of success, failure, and prior self-modification. We instantiate this principle as Population-Centered Evolution (PCE). PCE distils task records and modification histories from the population into a population block, which captures recurring failures, complementary successes, and the effects of previously attempted modifications to guide improvements to a selected parent's harness. Under matched models, initial harnesses, and evolution schedules, PCE achieves 72.1% success on SWE-bench Verified and 96.7% on Polyglot, improving over a strong group-evolution baseline by 3.2 and 5.9 percentage points. In our evaluation, PCE reduces the gap between population coverage and best-agent performance by one-third on SWE-bench and closes it on Polyglot. These results suggest that treating the population as evidence, not merely as candidates for selection, provides a complementary principle for agent evolution.