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版本更新 · v4arXiv:2509.05724

Robust Amortized Simulation-Based Inference via Learned Error Models

Matthew O'Callaghan, Kaisey S. Mandel, Gerry Gilmore

原文摘要

Recent advances in neural density estimation have enabled amortized Bayesian inference for complex stochastic simulators. However, these methods rely on simulators accurately reflecting the true data-generating process and can degrade significantly under model misspecification. We consider the setting where multiple unlabeled observations are available and introduce robust variational neural posterior estimation (RVNP), an amortized Bayesian inference method that uses an importance-weighted autoencoder to jointly learn a misspecification-robust posterior proxy and an explicit error model that captures the simulation-to-reality gap. Our results show that RVNP can recover robust posterior inference in a data-driven and interpretable manner, outperforming previous methods on multiple metrics across misspecified benchmarks.

stat.ML · astro-ph.GA · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.15040

Moving Beyond the DRW Model: Learning Quasar Variability with Generative Models

Nadav Bojan Sellam, Kevin Park, Alex Bronstein, Zoltán Haiman

原文摘要

The optical continuum variability of quasars is often described by a damped random walk (DRW) model, with characteristic damping timescales $τ_{\rm DRW}$ of hundreds of days and amplitudes $σ_{\rm DRW}$ of $\mathcal{O}(0.1)$ magnitudes. This model has been widely used as a null hypothesis to assess the significance of periodic signals in quasar light curves in the search for supermassive black hole binaries, the significance of extreme quasar variability like tidal disruption events (TDEs) and changing-look (CL) quasars, or to model time lags in reverberation mapping. However, the DRW model is known to be incomplete, and an incorrect null hypothesis can lead to biased significance estimates. We investigate the impact of such null-hypothesis mis-specification on the detection of periodic signals in synthetic quasar light curves and introduce the generative model Nullasar, capable of learning quasar variability directly from time-series data. We demonstrate that Nullasar, trained with flow matching, can learn delicate statistical properties of stochastic light-curve variability without explicitly assuming any noise model. We further demonstrate that Nullasar can learn correlated distributions of noise parameters and generate new light-curve realizations from a range of deviations from the Gaussian DRW noise model, approximating parametric descriptions of stochastic processes. When used as a null hypothesis for detecting periodic signals in synthetic light curves, Nullasar performs comparably to fitting the correct DRW model to each light curve, and outperforms parametric fitting when the variability follows a more flexible AR(2) model. Finally, we identify practical limitations, including sensitivity to contamination of the training set by non-null signals, and show that projecting the conditioning vector of the model onto its leading principal components largely mitigates it.

astro-ph.GA · cs.AI

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v3arXiv:2604.09787

Learning What's Real: Disentangling Signal and Measurement Artifacts in Multi-Sensor Data, with Applications to Astrophysics

Pablo Mercader-Perez, Carolina Cuesta-Lazaro, Daniel Muthukrishna, Jeroen Audenaert, V. Ashley Villar, David W. Hogg, Marc Huertas-Company, William T. Freeman

原文摘要

Data collected from the physical world is always a combination of multiple sources: an underlying signal from the physical process of interest and a signal from measurement-dependent artifacts from the sensor or instrument. This secondary signal acts as a confounding factor, limiting our ability to extract information about the physics underlying the phenomena we observe. Furthermore, it complicates the combination of observations in heterogeneous or multi-instrument settings. We propose a deep learning framework that leverages overlapping observations, a dual-encoder architecture, and a counterfactual generation objective to disentangle these factors of variation. The resulting representations explicitly separate intrinsic signals from sensor-specific distortions and noise, and can be used for counterfactual view generation, parameter inference unconfounded by measurement distortions, and instrument-independent similarity search. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on astrophysical galaxy images from the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey (Legacy) and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Survey as a representative multi-instrument setting. This framework provides a general recipe for scientific and multi-modal self-supervised pretraining: construct training pairs from overlapping observations of the same physical system, treat sensor- or modality-specific effects as augmentations, and learn invariant representations through counterfactual generation.

astro-ph.IM · astro-ph.GA · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.05438

HLA-Net: A Physics-Guided Skeleton-Based Framework for Automatic Gravitational Arc Detection in Astronomical Images

Don S

原文摘要

Gravitational arcs produced by strong gravitational lensing provide a unique approach for investigating dark matter distribution, galaxy cluster mass reconstruction and the structure of the Universe. Automated detection remains challenging because gravitational arcs are rare, often faint and morphologically similar to elongated galaxies.In this paper, we propose \textbf{HLA-Net (Hybrid Lens Arc Network)}, an interpretable multi-stage framework for automatic gravitational arc detection that explicitly exploits both the geometric morphology and physical characteristics of gravitational lensing without requiring manually annotated training datasets.The proposed framework was evaluated on astronomical FITS images containing complex galaxy cluster structures. Starting from 169 initial arc candidates extracted from ordered skeleton representations, the multi-stage verification pipeline reduced the search space to 83 geometrically consistent candidates, while robust circle fitting successfully modelled 113 candidate arc structures. The results demonstrate that HLA-Net effectively suppresses false-positive detections while preserving physically reasonable lens candidates through an interpretable and modular verification strategy.

astro-ph.IM · astro-ph.GA · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.04123

An automated photometric pipeline for measuring the corotation radius of spiral galaxies

Kimia Yazdani, Sahel Mesforoush, Wayne B. Hayes

原文摘要

The corotation radius R_CR of a spiral galaxy marks the radius where the angular speed of the spiral pattern matches the orbital speed of the disk material. Despite its importance for understanding spiral structure and galaxy evolution, very few galaxies have corotation measurements, often derived using heterogeneous techniques. We present an automated photometric pipeline that identifies corotation radii by tracking the azimuthal phase offset between young and old stellar populations. Building on the color-gradient framework of \citet{Puerari1997}, we extract azimuthal brightness profiles from deprojected dual-band images, fit periodic models to the profiles, and identify corotation candidates at radii where the phase difference between the two stellar tracers changes sign. Each candidate is assigned an adaptive uncertainty interval and reported with a goodness-of-fit metric. We benchmark the method against a cross-method literature compilation, scoring every technique -- including our own -- against a reference built from the published measurements alone and evaluated leave-one-out. Over the $90$ galaxies for which such a reference exists, the pipeline places a correct corotation radius in $80.0\%$ of them, recovers $63.6\%$ of their known corotation radii, and reaches a harmonic mean of recall and purity of $0.58$, the highest values of any method in the comparison. Unlike the published methods, each of which was applied to a small, curated set of galaxies, our pipeline is run on the entire reference sample without any pre-selection, a sample two to six times larger than existing methods. The pipeline is scalable to large surveys, flexible with respect to spiral mode, and naturally recovers multiple corotation radii in galaxies with complex spiral structure, providing a uniform framework for studying disk resonances across diverse galaxy populations.

astro-ph.GA · cs.CV · physics.data-an

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v5arXiv:2503.17894

Generative Learner for Distributional Causal Effects

Maria Nareklishvili, Nicholas Polson, Vadim Sokolov

原文摘要

We propose a generative learner for estimating conditional average treatment effects and characterizing the full distribution of these effects. The learner takes the form of a multi-head feed-forward neural network with three jointly estimated subnetworks: the propensity score, the conditional quantile function of the baseline outcome, and the conditional quantile treatment effect. Each quantile-indexed subnetwork combines a covariate representation with cosine quantile embeddings through element-wise multiplication. We then recover the conditional average treatment effect as an integral over conditional quantile treatment effects. Under the classical causal assumptions within the Neyman--Rubin potential outcomes framework, we find that the proposed generative learner reduces out-of-sample mean squared error relative to the generalized random forest, double machine learning, and generative adversarial networks, with gains ranging from 5.4% to 93.5% on average across experimental designs. In an empirical application, we formalize the Stefan--Boltzmann law within a unidirectional causal model and apply the method to publicly available stellar data. The estimated effects satisfy the restrictions the law implies.

astro-ph.SR · astro-ph.GA · cs.AI

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.38816

UnEZ: A Fully Unsupervised Self-Templating Neural Network for Redshift and Line Strength Estimation

Asha Abd, Karl Glazebrook, Colin Jacobs

原文摘要

As spectroscopic surveys grow, estimating galaxy properties such as metallicity, star formation rate, and redshift becomes computationally cumbersome. Methods of estimating such properties rely on template spectra or curated redshift catalogs, which fail to represent the diversity of objects seen in large-scale surveys. We present UnEZ, a fully unsupervised, physics-informed machine learning model that can predict spectroscopic redshifts and line strengths with no prior redshift or line strength labels. An encoder predicts emission and absorption line amplitudes/widths, and a fixed deterministic decoder constructs a unique template, estimated redshift, redshift confidence curve, and spectral model. UnEZ was tested on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 18 due to its large dataset and thoroughly vetted redshift catalog which serves as an independent benchmark. Despite the lack of templates, line strength labels, or redshift labels, UnEZ's performance competes with modern redshift estimation algorithms. At SNR > 10, UnEZ achieves an outlier fraction of 0.459% and a normalized median absolute deviation (NMAD) of $1.237 \times 10^{-4}$. At SNR > 3, UnEZ achieves an outlier fraction of 3.89% and an NMAD of $1.471 \times 10^{-4}$. Furthermore, we demonstrate how UnEZ's line strength and redshift predictions can be utilized for various purposes such as constructing template spectra required in traditional redshift estimation algorithms. UnEZ illustrates how a fully unsupervised neural network can allow redshift, among other galaxy properties, to emerge naturally from the spectra themselves, providing a template-free, label-free approach that scales to the demands of future surveys.

astro-ph.IM · astro-ph.GA · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
版本更新 · v2arXiv:2604.24589

A systematic evaluation of vision-language models for observational astronomical reasoning tasks

Wenke Ren, Hengxiao Guo, Wenwen Zuo, Xiaoman Zhang

原文摘要

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly proposed as general-purpose tools for scientific data interpretation, yet their reliability on real astronomical observations across diverse modalities remains untested. We present AstroVLBench, a benchmark of over 4,100 expert-verified instances across five tasks spanning optical imaging, radio interferometry, multi-wavelength photometry, time-domain light curves, and optical spectroscopy. We systematically evaluate six state-of-the-art frontier models and find that performance is strongly modality-dependent and uncorrelated with general benchmark rankings. Mechanistic cross-model ablations reveal three concrete bottlenecks. First, prompt grounding exhibits marked model and task dependence: physical guidance yields more balanced classifications on optical imaging, whereas phenomenological prompts better navigate undersampled time-domain data. Second, presenting one-dimensional measurements as numerical tables rather than rendered plots consistently improves light-curve classification across all models by up to 23 percentage points, demonstrating that plot rendering can obscure physically relevant signal. Third, an expert audit of optical spectroscopy reveals a notable "right-answer-wrong-reason" phenomenon: across evaluated models, an average of 26% of correct predictions are accompanied by physically inconsistent or invalid reasoning chains, showing that accuracy alone is insufficient for trustworthy scientific deployment. AstroVLBench provides the first systematic, multi-modal baselines for VLMs in observational astronomy and identifies the representation, grounding, and reasoning bottlenecks that must be addressed before VLMs can be trusted as autonomous scientific interpreters.

cs.AI · astro-ph.GA · astro-ph.IM

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗