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We revisit the problem of estimating $k$ linear regressors with self-selection bias in $n$ dimensions up to error $\varepsilon$ with the maximum self-selection criterion, as introduced by Cherapanamjeri, Daskalakis, Ilyas, and Zampetakis [CDIZ23, STOC]. Our main result is a $\mathrm{poly}(n,k,1/\varepsilon)$ time algorithm for the unknown-index variant of this problem, thereby improving upon the running times of the best known algorithms due to Gaitonde and Mossel [GM24] and Kalavasis, Mehrotra, and Zhou [KMZ26, COLT] with exponential dependence on $k$. Our algorithm succeeds in the presence of correlated noise between regressors, which captures the related setting of max-affine regression. Consequently, we also give the first polynomial-time algorithm for this problem, improving on the prior works of Ghosh, Pananjady, Guntuboyina, and Ramchandran [GPGR22, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory] and Gaitonde and Mossel [GM24] with exponential dependence on $k$. Prior works exhaustively search over a $k$-dimensional subspace spanned by the regressors, using conditional moments of the response to test candidates. In contrast, our algorithm is driven by an improved understanding of the moments of the covariates. We show that, restricting to observations with large response values, the degree-$(\log n)$ Hermite moment of the covariates approximately decomposes as a sum of tensor powers of the regressors. The first step of our algorithm can be viewed as a tensor decomposition algorithm for these implicitly represented high-order tensors, which outputs unit vectors parallel to the regressors. A secondary step based on a simple variant of ordinary least squares extracts estimates for the regressors given these unit vectors. We believe our analytic insight and algorithmic components may have applications to designing efficient algorithms for other latent-variable problems.

We study Bayesian inference of persistence from early observations of a heterogeneous susceptible--infected--susceptible (SIS) reaction--diffusion model with standard incidence. We show that the leading prevalence dynamics depend on the unknown coefficients only through the difference between the transmission and recovery rates and the infected diffusivity. The same pair determines the principal eigenvalue whose sign governs persistence, so early prevalence can inform the threshold even when the individual rates remain uncertain. We prove global weak well-posedness and quantitative parameter stability for the SIS system and use the resulting observation-map estimates to establish Bayesian well-posedness. For an initial infection of size $\varepsilon$, we derive a uniform second-order expansion that describes how the separate rates enter prevalence. Incidence depends explicitly on transmission at leading order. When the noise standard deviation is proportional to $\varepsilon$, we prove $O(\varepsilon)$ convergence in Hellinger distance of the nonlinear posteriors to their low-prevalence limits for both prevalence alone and joint prevalence and incidence data. We bound the principal eigenvalue using the growth rate of the infected $L^2$ norm between two times. This rate gives a lower bound for the full nonlinear system, and the upper bound separates spatial transients from nonlinear saturation. Uniform spectral estimates and bounds on infection size and measurement error give sufficient conditions for persistence and extinction. We also bound the error in posterior persistence probabilities under forward and eigenvalue approximation, accounting for posterior mass near the threshold. Numerical examples illustrate threshold inference and the predicted \(O(\varepsilon)\) convergence of the nonlinear posteriors to their low-prevalence limits in Hellinger distance.

Cross-validation estimates predictive performance by repeatedly splitting the data into training and validation sets, fitting the model on the first and evaluating it on the second. Every observation influences the estimate in two roles, through its own evaluation when it is held out and through the models it helps fit when it trains. The random splits determine its weight in each role. From this representation, we prove an exact finite-sample identity for the variance of the cross-validated estimate. For a given splitting scheme with a common training set size, the variance is a function of these weights, with constants of the model, the metric, and the population. It covers metrics averaged over observations, such as mean squared error, and over case--control pairs, such as the AUC. The identity shows which schemes to use. The variance decomposes into sampling variance, which depends only on the training size, and variance due to the random fold splitting, which arises when the weights change from one draw of the splits to the next. K-fold cross-validation, whose weights are equal across observations by design, is therefore variance optimal at first order; Monte Carlo and bootstrap cross-validation are not. The first-order variance of K-fold does not depend on K, and under reasonable conditions on the model leave-one-out has the smallest variance of any K-fold scheme. For the AUC the same holds for leave-pair-out, which evaluates every case--control pair. Finally, we show the cross-validated estimate is asymptotically normal with the identity's full variance. Together, these results provide a general theoretical foundation for inference on cross-validated performance and establish principles for selecting variance-optimal cross-validation designs.