← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2605.23362 · v2
Instance-Optimal Estimation with Multiple LLM Judges on a Budget
首次提交 2026-05-22 16:26
版本更新 2026-11-07 01:36
雷达观测 2026-11-09 13:22
摘要
Evaluating large language models increasingly relies on LLM-as-a-judge protocols, but such evaluations remain costly: different judges have different prices and reliabilities, and the difficulty of each prompt-response pair can vary substantially. This raises a basic allocation question: under a fixed budget, how should one distribute evaluation queries across heterogeneous judges and instances to obtain the most accurate score estimates? We formalize this question as budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation under independent, unbiased score observations. Given $K$ prompt-response pairs and $J$ judges with known costs but unknown query-judge variances, our goal is to estimate the bounded score vector while minimizing an $\ell_p$-error. Our first contribution is to analyze the inverse-variance weighted estimator (IVWE) and to derive the oracle allocation that minimizes its leading error bound. Since this allocation depends on the unknown variances, we then address the unknown-variance setting by proposing EST-IVWE, an adaptive algorithm that constructs and uses optimistic variance estimates to stabilize the empirical allocation. We prove that EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget. Our second and central theoretical contribution is a local minimax lower bound matching the leading allocation-dependent rate, establishing asymptotic instance-optimality up to logarithmic factors. An Assouad-type construction based on local, variance-preserving perturbations yields this bound both in expectation and with constant probability. A complementary Fano-type change-of-measure argument captures the logarithmic dependence on the confidence level with a different (suboptimal) allocation geometry. Finally, we numerically validate our approach on synthetic data and resampled HelpSteer2 evaluations, demonstrating improvements over naïve uniform allocation.
作者备注：55 pages, 4 figures; the first two authors contributed equally
观测到的版本
相邻记录可能跳过中间版本；首次发现 v2 及以上也会标为版本更新。
v2 · 2026-11-07 01:36 · 最新观测版本
Instance-Optimal Estimation with Multiple LLM Judges on a Budget
Evaluating large language models increasingly relies on LLM-as-a-judge protocols, but such evaluations remain costly: different judges have different prices and reliabilities, and the difficulty of each prompt-response pair can vary substantially. This raises a basic allocation question: under a fixed budget, how should one distribute evaluation queries across heterogeneous judges and instances to obtain the most accurate score estimates? We formalize this question as budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation under independent, unbiased score observations. Given $K$ prompt-response pairs and $J$ judges with known costs but unknown query-judge variances, our goal is to estimate the bounded score vector while minimizing an $\ell_p$-error. Our first contribution is to analyze the inverse-variance weighted estimator (IVWE) and to derive the oracle allocation that minimizes its leading error bound. Since this allocation depends on the unknown variances, we then address the unknown-variance setting by proposing EST-IVWE, an adaptive algorithm that constructs and uses optimistic variance estimates to stabilize the empirical allocation. We prove that EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget. Our second and central theoretical contribution is a local minimax lower bound matching the leading allocation-dependent rate, establishing asymptotic instance-optimality up to logarithmic factors. An Assouad-type construction based on local, variance-preserving perturbations yields this bound both in expectation and with constant probability. A complementary Fano-type change-of-measure argument captures the logarithmic dependence on the confidence level with a different (suboptimal) allocation geometry. Finally, we numerically validate our approach on synthetic data and resampled HelpSteer2 evaluations, demonstrating improvements over naïve uniform allocation.
查看此版本解读 →查看此版本原文 ↗