← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2606.02383 · v3
A Game-Theoretic Decision Framework for Optimal Selection of Coordination Detection Methods in Multi-UAV Fleet Operations
首次提交 2026-06-01 23:33
版本更新 2026-11-04 07:03
雷达观测 2026-11-05 11:11
摘要
Detecting coordination among unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) fleets operating in shared airspace and identifying the route-lead aircraft whose navigation decisions govern fleet behavior presents a fundamental speed--accuracy trade-off: fast methods enable real-time traffic management but sacrifice detection fidelity, while accurate methods may exceed the time budget for actionable airspace deconfliction. This paper presents a game-theoretic decision framework that resolves this trade-off by formulating method selection as a two-player zero-sum game between a Monitor (selecting computational methods and parameters) and Nature (selecting the unknown traffic scenario). We construct an end-to-end pipeline from trajectory surveillance data through eight candidate detection algorithms, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis characterizing their stochastic performance, and finally a multi-objective optimization layer that identifies Pareto-optimal method portfolios. The minimax solution provides a robust mixed strategy with a probability distribution over methods that guarantees worst-case performance regardless of scenario uncertainty. Experimental evaluation across 200 randomized configurations spanning 5--50 aircraft demonstrates that the framework recommends distinct method portfolios depending on operational priority: Koopman Phase dominates balanced (70.6%) and speed-priority (79.7%) profiles, while CRQA emerges as primary (47.4%) when route-lead identification is prioritized. The framework achieves a guaranteed game value of 0.29--0.53 (normalized utility) across all tested preference profiles, providing the first principled, scenario-adaptive methodology for computational method selection in UTM fleet monitoring operations.
观测到的版本
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v3 · 2026-11-04 07:03 · 最新观测版本
A Game-Theoretic Decision Framework for Optimal Selection of Coordination Detection Methods in Multi-UAV Fleet Operations
Detecting coordination among unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) fleets operating in shared airspace and identifying the route-lead aircraft whose navigation decisions govern fleet behavior presents a fundamental speed--accuracy trade-off: fast methods enable real-time traffic management but sacrifice detection fidelity, while accurate methods may exceed the time budget for actionable airspace deconfliction. This paper presents a game-theoretic decision framework that resolves this trade-off by formulating method selection as a two-player zero-sum game between a Monitor (selecting computational methods and parameters) and Nature (selecting the unknown traffic scenario). We construct an end-to-end pipeline from trajectory surveillance data through eight candidate detection algorithms, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis characterizing their stochastic performance, and finally a multi-objective optimization layer that identifies Pareto-optimal method portfolios. The minimax solution provides a robust mixed strategy with a probability distribution over methods that guarantees worst-case performance regardless of scenario uncertainty. Experimental evaluation across 200 randomized configurations spanning 5--50 aircraft demonstrates that the framework recommends distinct method portfolios depending on operational priority: Koopman Phase dominates balanced (70.6%) and speed-priority (79.7%) profiles, while CRQA emerges as primary (47.4%) when route-lead identification is prioritized. The framework achieves a guaranteed game value of 0.29--0.53 (normalized utility) across all tested preference profiles, providing the first principled, scenario-adaptive methodology for computational method selection in UTM fleet monitoring operations.
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