arXiv:2607.18164 · v2

A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing

首次提交 2026-07-21 01:07

版本更新 2026-11-07 05:16

雷达观测 2026-11-10 10:11

摘要

Digital Twins support real-time decision-making through predictive models of physical systems, yet their reliability can deteriorate as operating conditions evolve. Maintaining predictive fidelity under such changes is challenging, particularly when model adaptation relies on limited streaming data, and updated models must be evaluated before deployment. Here, we present an online adaptation framework that integrates gradient-based drift detection, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, and statistical model validation within model predictive control. Changes in prediction-loss gradients trigger batch-wise model updates using Low-Rank Adaptation, while a paired moving-block bootstrap test evaluates predictive improvement before deploying the updated model. The framework is evaluated using a stochastic dynamical system with abrupt changes and a simulated directed energy deposition process with gradual changes in material properties. Results show improvements in predictive accuracy and uncertainty estimation during the evaluated post-adaptation intervals, alongside improved reference tracking and reduced constraint violations in the manufacturing case study compared with the investigated baselines. These findings demonstrate the potential of integrating continual validation with model adaptation while acknowledging the trade-off between responsiveness and predictive reliability in evolving Digital Twins.