arXiv:2609.34026 · v3

Uncovering Non-Normality in Information Flow: Network Structure and Dynamics of Social Media Cascades

首次提交 2026-09-28 07:36

版本更新 2026-10-27 15:20

雷达观测 2026-10-29 00:35

摘要

Information cascades on social media are conventionally conceptualized as directed, feedforward branching processes. However, real-world diffusion pathways frequently deviate from pure hierarchical trees due to localized clustering, reciprocal commentary, and multi-wave temporal surges. In this work, we quantify the directional asymmetry and hierarchical structure of empirical information cascades on X (formerly Twitter) using spectral non-normality via Henrici's departure from normality. Analyzing approximately 58,000 cascade networks across diverse topics (including politics, entertainment, natural disasters, etc.), we investigate (1) how non-normality relates to temporal dynamics such as endogenous-like versus exogenous-like patterns and burstiness, (2) whether non-normality is correlated with the peak concentration or overall size of a cascade, (3) whether the overall non-normality of a cascade's network structure can be predicted from its early stages. We find that non-normality strongly aligns with peak concentration (peak/N) rather than overall cascade size, characterizing cascades governed by rapid, asymmetric forwarding. Furthermore, while early-stage structural forecasting (<= 30% of nodes observed) exhibits expected baseline uncertainty (51%-72% accuracy at a +/- 20% error tolerance), predictability consolidates rapidly during intermediate growth, exceeding 80% across all dynamic clusters once 50%-60% of the network is observed. By identifying the topological and dynamic correlates of cascade structures, this study advances our understanding of information flow and establishes a quantifiable benchmark for forecasting directional diffusion architectures.

作者备注：18 pages, 6 figures