← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2610.37883 · v1
fastC-GC and fastC-GC*: Efficient RCCP-Guided Graph Estimation for Time Series
首次提交 2026-10-28 03:23
版本更新 2026-10-28 03:23
雷达观测 2026-10-30 10:23
摘要
We introduce fastC-GC and fastC-GC$^*$, computationally efficient methods for time-series graph estimation using the two-test rule motivated by Reichenbach's common cause principle (RCCP) and the conditioning sets of causalised Granger causality (c-GC and c-GC$^*$). The methods use standardized data, ridge-residual correlation, and complete circular shift enumeration evaluated by Fourier transforms. Shared precision calculations and Schur downdates avoid repeated regression fits. On a single-threaded benchmark, fastC-GC was 68-277 times faster than the compared c-GC implementation, and fastC-GC$^*$ was 192-886 times faster than c-GC$^*$. Across four suites with reference graphs, aggregate mean area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) differed from the corresponding baseline by at most 0.019, but F1 was lower at the selected thresholds in every suite. The computational gains therefore accompany a change in estimator and selected graphs. Among eight methods, Bagged PCMCI+ had the highest mean AUPRC on sparse VAR, an autocorrelated structural process, and DREAM3; CUTS+ led on Lorenz-96. Wind-tunnel and river-discharge applications illustrate differences between inferred graphs without establishing causal accuracy. We prove the computational identities and a restricted population adjacency result for fastC-GC$^*$. Causal interpretation requires the stated graphical assumptions; validity of the implemented tests additionally requires a suitable shift-invariant null law. Empirical null rejection rates informed the conditional threshold $β= 0.005$, without establishing general test validity or graph-wide error control.
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v1 · 2026-10-28 03:23 · 最新观测版本
fastC-GC and fastC-GC*: Efficient RCCP-Guided Graph Estimation for Time Series
We introduce fastC-GC and fastC-GC$^*$, computationally efficient methods for time-series graph estimation using the two-test rule motivated by Reichenbach's common cause principle (RCCP) and the conditioning sets of causalised Granger causality (c-GC and c-GC$^*$). The methods use standardized data, ridge-residual correlation, and complete circular shift enumeration evaluated by Fourier transforms. Shared precision calculations and Schur downdates avoid repeated regression fits. On a single-threaded benchmark, fastC-GC was 68-277 times faster than the compared c-GC implementation, and fastC-GC$^*$ was 192-886 times faster than c-GC$^*$. Across four suites with reference graphs, aggregate mean area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) differed from the corresponding baseline by at most 0.019, but F1 was lower at the selected thresholds in every suite. The computational gains therefore accompany a change in estimator and selected graphs. Among eight methods, Bagged PCMCI+ had the highest mean AUPRC on sparse VAR, an autocorrelated structural process, and DREAM3; CUTS+ led on Lorenz-96. Wind-tunnel and river-discharge applications illustrate differences between inferred graphs without establishing causal accuracy. We prove the computational identities and a restricted population adjacency result for fastC-GC$^*$. Causal interpretation requires the stated graphical assumptions; validity of the implemented tests additionally requires a suitable shift-invariant null law. Empirical null rejection rates informed the conditional threshold $β= 0.005$, without establishing general test validity or graph-wide error control.
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