← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2610.39497 · v1
Does Scaling Toward AGI Depend on What System-1 Lets System-2 Execute?
首次提交 2026-10-29 15:00
版本更新 2026-10-29 15:00
雷达观测 2026-10-30 13:28
摘要
Progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) has largely relied on scaling a resource-intensive executive, System-2, through larger models, more data and compute, longer reasoning, and more agents. We ask whether the next stage may come instead from co-designing it with System-1, a lightweight, semantically aware predictor that evaluates candidate interactions before execution, so that System-2 acts only on those worth their cost. Our answer is a qualified yes. We study \textit{conditional interaction}, a predict--gate--execute--update loop: System-1 estimates each candidate's utility, System-2 executes those admitted by an adaptive threshold, and the outcomes update System-1. The loop spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making, and agentic tool use, with utility and cost defined by the application. Under ideal screening and equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching $1/ρ_u$, where $ρ_u$ is the density of utility-relevant interactions (cost-weighted when costs differ); prediction errors, exploration, and distribution shift reduce the saving. We bound selection regret by predictor error and the utility margin. These results motivate our central hypothesis: $ρ_u$ is a measurable coordinate of scaling efficiency and makes informative compute a better description of scaling than total compute.
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v1 · 2026-10-29 15:00 · 最新观测版本
Does Scaling Toward AGI Depend on What System-1 Lets System-2 Execute?
Progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) has largely relied on scaling a resource-intensive executive, System-2, through larger models, more data and compute, longer reasoning, and more agents. We ask whether the next stage may come instead from co-designing it with System-1, a lightweight, semantically aware predictor that evaluates candidate interactions before execution, so that System-2 acts only on those worth their cost. Our answer is a qualified yes. We study \textit{conditional interaction}, a predict--gate--execute--update loop: System-1 estimates each candidate's utility, System-2 executes those admitted by an adaptive threshold, and the outcomes update System-1. The loop spans training, test-time reasoning, adaptive decision-making, and agentic tool use, with utility and cost defined by the application. Under ideal screening and equal execution costs, execution compute falls by a factor approaching $1/ρ_u$, where $ρ_u$ is the density of utility-relevant interactions (cost-weighted when costs differ); prediction errors, exploration, and distribution shift reduce the saving. We bound selection regret by predictor error and the utility margin. These results motivate our central hypothesis: $ρ_u$ is a measurable coordinate of scaling efficiency and makes informative compute a better description of scaling than total compute.
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