← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.02511 · v1
When Prediction Shapes the Future: A BlueSky Agenda for Reflexive Time Series Analysis
首次提交 2026-11-02 12:30
版本更新 2026-11-02 12:30
雷达观测 2026-11-04 23:42
摘要
Time-series models are increasingly deployed in operational systems (e.g., inventory management and clinical care) where predictions trigger interventions that alter future observations, producing records we term AI-shaped trajectories. This sequence-prediction coupling deepens as such systems evolve into agents that autonomously predict, act, and remember across long horizons. Such AI-shaped trajectories support immediate performance monitoring, but turn ambiguous once reused as passive data. An algorithm may then misread a prediction-prevented stockout as naturally stable demand, or an averted medical crisis as a false alarm. This ambiguity then propagates into everything built on the record, from retraining and agent memory to downstream predictive tasks. As a result, systems may internalize these intervention effects as natural phenomena, drifting further from the truth at every closed-loop cycle. In this Blue Sky paper, we advocate an agenda for reflexive time-series analysis that shifts the analytical object from the intervention-agnostic sequence to the prediction-action-observation loop. The agenda requires closed-loop provenance to track the operational context (e.g., predictions, policies, and actions), sequence identification to estimate how those actions affect future values under explicit causal assumptions, and closed-loop evaluation to separate intrinsic process prediction from policy-driven effects. This foundation is essential for integrating autonomous agents into such loops at scale, enabling the joint learning of intervention effects and intrinsic dynamics for robust temporal representations.
作者备注：Accepted to the ICDM 2026 BlueSky Track
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v1 · 2026-11-02 12:30 · 最新观测版本
When Prediction Shapes the Future: A BlueSky Agenda for Reflexive Time Series Analysis
Time-series models are increasingly deployed in operational systems (e.g., inventory management and clinical care) where predictions trigger interventions that alter future observations, producing records we term AI-shaped trajectories. This sequence-prediction coupling deepens as such systems evolve into agents that autonomously predict, act, and remember across long horizons. Such AI-shaped trajectories support immediate performance monitoring, but turn ambiguous once reused as passive data. An algorithm may then misread a prediction-prevented stockout as naturally stable demand, or an averted medical crisis as a false alarm. This ambiguity then propagates into everything built on the record, from retraining and agent memory to downstream predictive tasks. As a result, systems may internalize these intervention effects as natural phenomena, drifting further from the truth at every closed-loop cycle. In this Blue Sky paper, we advocate an agenda for reflexive time-series analysis that shifts the analytical object from the intervention-agnostic sequence to the prediction-action-observation loop. The agenda requires closed-loop provenance to track the operational context (e.g., predictions, policies, and actions), sequence identification to estimate how those actions affect future values under explicit causal assumptions, and closed-loop evaluation to separate intrinsic process prediction from policy-driven effects. This foundation is essential for integrating autonomous agents into such loops at scale, enabling the joint learning of intervention effects and intrinsic dynamics for robust temporal representations.
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