← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.03966 · v1
Stacking-Based Weighting for Large Language Bayes in M-Open Settings
首次提交 2026-11-03 05:07
版本更新 2026-11-03 05:07
雷达观测 2026-11-04 23:40
摘要
Large Language Bayes (LLB) transforms a natural language problem description into a collection of candidate probabilistic programs and performs inference within each model, combining their predictions using Bayesian model averaging. While this provides a flexible framework for probabilistic inference without manual model specification, the resulting candidate model set is often misspecified in practice, and likelihood-based aggregation can concentrate on a single model, under-representing uncertainty across the sampled models. We propose a stacking-based aggregation method for LLB that selects model weights by optimizing predictive performance rather than marginal likelihood, while preserving the original language-model-driven model generation and within-model inference pipeline. Because leave-one-out predictive quantities are intractable in latent-variable models, we derive a variational lower bound that yields a tractable ELBO-based stacking objective. Across real-world probabilistic inference tasks, our method achieves comparable predictive performance to Bayesian model averaging while yielding more dispersed model weights, reducing concentration on a single candidate model under misspecification.
作者备注：10 Pages,4 Figures
期刊信息：EIML@ICML 2026
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v1 · 2026-11-03 05:07 · 最新观测版本
Stacking-Based Weighting for Large Language Bayes in M-Open Settings
Large Language Bayes (LLB) transforms a natural language problem description into a collection of candidate probabilistic programs and performs inference within each model, combining their predictions using Bayesian model averaging. While this provides a flexible framework for probabilistic inference without manual model specification, the resulting candidate model set is often misspecified in practice, and likelihood-based aggregation can concentrate on a single model, under-representing uncertainty across the sampled models. We propose a stacking-based aggregation method for LLB that selects model weights by optimizing predictive performance rather than marginal likelihood, while preserving the original language-model-driven model generation and within-model inference pipeline. Because leave-one-out predictive quantities are intractable in latent-variable models, we derive a variational lower bound that yields a tractable ELBO-based stacking objective. Across real-world probabilistic inference tasks, our method achieves comparable predictive performance to Bayesian model averaging while yielding more dispersed model weights, reducing concentration on a single candidate model under misspecification.
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