← 研踪 PaperTrailarXiv:2611.15378 · v1
A Modified Glicko Model for Rating Soccer Clubs and National Teams Worldwide
首次提交 2026-11-11 19:56
版本更新 2026-11-11 19:56
雷达观测 2026-11-13 11:11
摘要
Comparing soccer teams that rarely or never meet is a fundamental challenge in sports analytics: clubs play mostly within their national leagues, and national teams within their confederations. We propose a rating framework that places clubs and national teams worldwide on a common probabilistic scale. Building on a recent extension of Glicko with order effects and strength-dependent draw probabilities, we adapt the model to soccer with goal-scoring adjustments, a decomposition of home advantage, extra time, league-aware rating initialization and rules of promotion and relegation that do not inflate the levels of leagues; national teams start from the levels of their confederations. The models are evaluated on about 1.2 million club matches of 252 leagues from 166 countries (2000-2026) and 12.6 thousand national team matches (1998-2026). On held-out seasons, the modified Glicko model is clearly more accurate than Elo and as accurate as score-matrix models built on the goal expectations of a gradient boosting model, including the Dixon-Coles and Markov chain models, while it is substantially more accurate in international club matches. Averaging the predictions of the rating model and the Markov chain model is more accurate than either model alone. For national teams, the model is significantly more accurate than all baselines, especially in the final tournaments, where teams of different confederations meet. The resulting ratings are interpretable and can be used for player evaluation, transfer analysis and match forecasting. The match data, the ratings and the code are publicly available at https://github.com/andreyshelopugin/SportsRatings
作者备注：39 pages, 4 figures, 14 tables
观测到的版本
相邻记录可能跳过中间版本；首次发现 v2 及以上也会标为版本更新。
v1 · 2026-11-11 19:56 · 最新观测版本
A Modified Glicko Model for Rating Soccer Clubs and National Teams Worldwide
Comparing soccer teams that rarely or never meet is a fundamental challenge in sports analytics: clubs play mostly within their national leagues, and national teams within their confederations. We propose a rating framework that places clubs and national teams worldwide on a common probabilistic scale. Building on a recent extension of Glicko with order effects and strength-dependent draw probabilities, we adapt the model to soccer with goal-scoring adjustments, a decomposition of home advantage, extra time, league-aware rating initialization and rules of promotion and relegation that do not inflate the levels of leagues; national teams start from the levels of their confederations. The models are evaluated on about 1.2 million club matches of 252 leagues from 166 countries (2000-2026) and 12.6 thousand national team matches (1998-2026). On held-out seasons, the modified Glicko model is clearly more accurate than Elo and as accurate as score-matrix models built on the goal expectations of a gradient boosting model, including the Dixon-Coles and Markov chain models, while it is substantially more accurate in international club matches. Averaging the predictions of the rating model and the Markov chain model is more accurate than either model alone. For national teams, the model is significantly more accurate than all baselines, especially in the final tournaments, where teams of different confederations meet. The resulting ratings are interpretable and can be used for player evaluation, transfer analysis and match forecasting. The match data, the ratings and the code are publicly available at https://github.com/andreyshelopugin/SportsRatings
查看此版本解读 →查看此版本原文 ↗