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Agentic Economic Modeling
来源日期（仅到月份） 2026-07
来源记录日期 2026-07
雷达观测 2026-11-01 22:08
摘要
We introduce Agentic Economic Modeling (AEM), a framework that aligns synthetic LLM choices with small-sample human evidence for reliable econometric inference. AEM first generates task-conditioned synthetic choices via LLMs, then learns a bias-correction mapping from task features and raw LLM choices to human-aligned choices, upon which standard econometric estimators perform inference to recover demand elasticities and treatment effects. We validate AEM in two experiments. In a large scale conjoint study with millions of observations, using only 10% of the original data to fit the correction model lowers the error of the demand-parameter estimates, while uncorrected LLM choices even increase the errors. In a regional field experiment, a mixture model calibrated on 10% of geographic regions estimates an out-of-domain treatment effect of -65\pm10 bps, closely matching the full human experiment (-60\pm8 bps). Under time-wise extrapolation, training with only day-one human data yields -24 bps (95% CI: [-26, -22], p<1e-5), improving over the human-only day-one baseline (-17 bps, 95% CI: [-43, +9], p=0.2049). These results demonstrate AEM’s potential to improve RCT efficiency and establish a foundation method for LLM-based counterfactual generation.
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记录 #1 · 2026-07 · 最新观测版本
Agentic Economic Modeling
We introduce Agentic Economic Modeling (AEM), a framework that aligns synthetic LLM choices with small-sample human evidence for reliable econometric inference. AEM first generates task-conditioned synthetic choices via LLMs, then learns a bias-correction mapping from task features and raw LLM choices to human-aligned choices, upon which standard econometric estimators perform inference to recover demand elasticities and treatment effects. We validate AEM in two experiments. In a large scale conjoint study with millions of observations, using only 10% of the original data to fit the correction model lowers the error of the demand-parameter estimates, while uncorrected LLM choices even increase the errors. In a regional field experiment, a mixture model calibrated on 10% of geographic regions estimates an out-of-domain treatment effect of -65\pm10 bps, closely matching the full human experiment (-60\pm8 bps). Under time-wise extrapolation, training with only day-one human data yields -24 bps (95% CI: [-26, -22], p<1e-5), improving over the human-only day-one baseline (-17 bps, 95% CI: [-43, +9], p=0.2049). These results demonstrate AEM’s potential to improve RCT efficiency and establish a foundation method for LLM-based counterfactual generation.
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