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版本更新 · v2arXiv:2610.12702

Product Monte Carlo: Expectation Under a Product of Densities

Pietro Carlotti, Sifan Liu, Yuling Yao

原文摘要

Aggregating independently computed sub-sample inferences is a well-known challenge in large-scale Bayesian computation, federated learning, and opinion pooling. The core problem is to approximate a distribution whose density is proportional to a product of individual densities. We propose Product Monte Carlo (PMC), an algorithm for computing arbitrary expectations under a product of densities using only Monte Carlo draws from individual densities. We turn the intractable product expectation into a regression problem by expressing it through a family of computable conditional expectations. Besides the point estimate, our fully Bayesian regression formulation provides coherent uncertainty quantification and principled diagnostics. We establish theoretical guarantees on consistency and characterize convergence rates for the PMC estimator. Across simulated and real-data experiments varying the number, dimensionality, and heterogeneity of the component distributions, PMC achieves higher estimation accuracy, better-calibrated uncertainty coverage, and improved scalability at a lower computational cost than existing methods. In addition, PMC requires no density evaluation, making it applicable to simulation-based inference, as we demonstrate in an application with protein images.

stat.ME · cs.LG · stat.CO

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.05605

Transport along Local Annealing Paths: Wasserstein Geometry and Multimodal Sampling

Han Chen, Sifan Liu

原文摘要

Variational approaches to learning transport maps for multimodal sampling can suffer from mode collapse. One way to mitigate this problem is to learn transport along a prescribed path of intermediate distributions defined by geometric annealing. We show that annealing can take a substantial detour in Wasserstein space: when mass moves between modes, the path can be much longer than the distance between its endpoints. We further link path geometry to transport learning, showing that long annealing paths can slow population optimization, while sufficiently regular paths permit rapid convergence. Motivated by these findings, we propose componentwise annealed transport (CAT) to reduce the need for mass transfer between modes. Starting from a mode-informed mixture reference, CAT constructs an exact mixture decomposition of the target and learns separate transport maps along componentwise annealing paths. We estimate the component weights separately and show that these estimates remain consistent even when the learned flows are inexact. We also develop adaptive annealing schedules guided by transport effort. Experiments on multimodal synthetic distributions and Bayesian inference problems demonstrate improvements in transport learning and sampling efficiency.

cs.LG · stat.CO · stat.ML

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.32177HF 社区推荐

$Ψ$-0.6: Adaptive Streams of Thought in a Unified Vision-Language World Model

Khai Loong Aw, Klemen Kotar, Baihan Zhang, Yifan Liu, Lilian Chen, Atlas Kazemian, Rahul Venkatesh, Daniel Yamins

原文摘要

Humans reason about the physical world by flexibly combining different forms of inference as a problem unfolds. Achieving this flexibility is a major open challenge in AI: capabilities often remain separated across specialized models, limiting how they can be composed and jointly adapted to a task. We introduce $Ψ$-0.6, a unified vision-language world model that adaptively composes perception, language, geometry, and simulation within a shared reasoning process we call streams of thought. These streams interleave images, text, and explicit representations of geometry and motion, all of which the model can generate and interpret through a shared token interface. $Ψ$-0.6 surpasses leading open-weight models zero-shot on multi-view spatial reasoning, with further gains from reasoning through geometric intermediates. It also supports counterfactual simulation: generating and interpreting imagined scenes to determine, for example, whether moving an object would obstruct a pathway. Reinforcement learning from task feedback jointly optimizes the selection, generation, and use of intermediate representations, improving visual question-answering accuracy with gains that transfer to unseen benchmarks. $Ψ$-0.6 offers a path toward adaptive physical reasoning -- not only predicting the physical world but also choosing the representations through which to reason.

cs.AI · cs.CV · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗
新论文 · v1arXiv:2509.26603Google Research

DeepScientist: Advancing Frontier-Pushing Scientific Findings Progressively

Yixuan Weng, Minjun Zhu, Qiujie Xie, Qiyao Sun, Zhen Lin, Sifan Liu, Yue Zhang

原文摘要

While previous AI Scientist systems can generate novel findings, they often lack the focus to produce scientifically valuable contributions that address pressing human-defined challenges. We introduce DeepScientist, a system designed to overcome this by conducting goal-oriented, fully autonomous scientific discovery over month-long timelines. It formalizes discovery as a Bayesian Optimization problem, operationalized through a hierarchical evaluation process consisting of "hypothesize, verify, and analyze". Leveraging a cumulative Findings Memory, this loop intelligently balances the exploration of novel hypotheses with exploitation, selectively promoting the most promising findings to higher-fidelity levels of validation. Consuming over 20,000 GPU hours, the system generated about 5,000 unique scientific ideas and experimentally validated approximately 1100 of them, ultimately surpassing human-designed state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on three frontier AI tasks by 183.7\%, 1.9\%, and 7.9\%. This work provides the first large-scale evidence of an AI achieving discoveries that progressively surpass human SOTA on scientific tasks, producing valuable findings that genuinely push the frontier of scientific discovery. To facilitate further research into this process, we will open-source all experimental logs and system code at https://github.com/ResearAI/DeepScientist/.

cs.CL · cs.LG

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arXiv ↗PDF ↗