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arXiv 最近完成扫描:2026-11-07 20:41 · 全站最近入库:2026-11-07 17:43各信源进度 →

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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.06612

From Reconstruction to Imputation: Test-Time Optimization for Missing Time-Series Channels

Björn Ludwig, Alexander Windmann, René Heesch, Oliver Niggemann

原文摘要

Complete sensor-channel failures create a difficult form of time-series missingness: local interpolation is unavailable, and deploying a separately trained imputer for every failure pattern may be impractical. We ask whether a sequence reconstructor trained without artificial mask augmentation and then frozen can be converted into an imputer at inference time. Our method treats the missing entries of each test window as optimization variables, clamps all observations, and backpropagates through the frozen model to minimize reconstruction error only on observed coordinates. The resulting observed-self-consistency objective requires neither artificial mask augmentation nor full-channel dropout during reconstructor training. We characterize when this refinement is informative through the cross-Jacobian from missing inputs to observed residuals, and use an optional temporal-smoothness prior when that coupling is weak. Across five real-world datasets with exactly one channel synthetically masked per test window and four reconstruction architectures, no-prior test-time refinement reduces MAE relative to one-pass reconstruction in 19 of 20 dataset-backbone combinations. Compared with mask-aware imputers trained under either standard structured masks or matched full-channel dropout, the best refined reconstructor achieves the lowest MAE on two datasets and trails the strongest baseline on three. These gains require substantially more inference time and are sensitive to cross-channel coupling. Our results establish test-time self-consistency as a conditional inference-time adapter for frozen reconstruction models that complements mask-aware imputation without retraining the reconstructor.

cs.LG · cs.AI

版本更新 · v2arXiv:2605.10822

Benchmarking Sensor-Fault Robustness in Forecasting

Alexander Windmann, Philipp Wittenberg, Gianluca Manca, Marcel Dix, Jens U. Brandt, Oliver Niggemann

原文摘要

Cyber-physical system (CPS) forecasting models depend on sensor streams with noisy, biased, missing, or temporally misaligned readings, yet standard forecasting evaluation often selects models by nominal error without showing whether they remain robust under such faults. We introduce SensorFault-Bench, a CPS-grounded protocol that evaluates forecasting architectures and robustness-improvement methods through controlled synthetic stress tests of isolated input faults, together with an operational taxonomy of the methods. Across four real-world datasets and eight scored scenarios governed by a standardized severity model, it reports worst-scenario degradation, clean mean squared error (MSE), and worst-scenario fault-time MSE, separating relative robustness from absolute error. Explicit fault-training methods train on adjacent fault families disjoint from the scored scenarios. Empirically, forecasting architectures favored by clean MSE can degrade sharply under faults, and clean-MSE rankings can disagree with worst-scenario fault-time error rankings. Chronos-2, the evaluated zero-shot foundation model, matches or trails the last-value naive forecaster in clean MSE on the two single-target datasets and has the largest worst-scenario degradation on ETTh1 and Traffic, where all channels are forecast targets. For the evaluated robustness-improvement method set, paired deltas show selective degradation reductions: projected gradient descent adversarial training and randomized training lead where value faults dominate observed degradation, and fault augmentation leads on Traffic, where availability faults dominate. High degradation reveals fault sensitivity that clean MSE misses, while low degradation supports robustness only within the evaluated scenarios. The benchmark therefore screens forecasters before use in a specific deployment, which requires validation against its recorded faults.

cs.LG · eess.SP