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Sampling experiments are a leading approach to demonstrating quantum computational advantage, yet their robustness to experimental noise is not completely understood. We develop a common framework for classical simulation of boson and fermion sampling under thermal loss, including pure loss. For Fock-state boson sampling, Gaussian boson sampling with fixed uniform squeezing, and fermion sampling with magic inputs, we obtain polynomial-time sampling at inverse-polynomial total variation error, for any fixed nonzero overall loss rate, and with high probability over Haar-random interferometers. A milder flatness assumption on the ideal output distribution suffices for quasipolynomial-time simulation without Haar randomness. With constant thermal loss per layer, the same flatness assumption gives polynomial-time simulation at logarithmic depth. Our bounds for Fock-state boson sampling cover both dilute and saturated regimes and become stronger near full input filling: when only a bounded number of input modes are empty, the noisy output for Haar-random interferometers converges, as the number of modes grows, to a distribution independent of the interferometer.