Behind the Paper Explosion: Author Growth and Widening Gaps in Computer Science
Jiayi Li, Bowen Niu, Bingsheng He, Zhaomin Wu
The rapid growth of computer science (CS) papers increases the work needed to review research and find relevant studies. The growing use of AI tools in scientific writing makes it increasingly important to identify the authors behind this growth. Previous studies have tracked publication growth and followed researchers' careers, documenting the increasing number of authors and the many researchers who publish only briefly. However, annual averages of papers per author reflect different sets of researchers and may hide changes among the same authors. This study addresses this gap by linking individual changes to overall CS paper growth using arXiv, DBLP, and conference submission records for 2010-2025. With each paper divided equally among its authors, the total paper count equals the number of authors multiplied by their average papers per author. This relationship provides a decomposition of the two contributions of paper growth. This decomposition attributes nearly all growth in CS paper volume to an increase in the number of publishing authors. The analysis of author numbers further distinguishes expansion through new and returning arXiv authors from the replacement of authors no longer publishing there. Changes in who publishes also affect the average, motivating comparisons of the same authors over time within groups with similar past paper counts. This comparison identifies substantial replacement within the growing author group. New authors average fewer papers under this counting method, keeping the overall average nearly unchanged despite increases among authors who published in both years. Moreover, statistics show that these increases are uneven, with widening gaps even among authors who previously published similar numbers of papers. These findings provide insights into peer review, community participation, researcher evaluation, and equity within the CS community.
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