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原文摘要

Robots that manipulate moving objects act on observations that are outdated when the chosen skill starts, and the best skill can change within a few hundred milliseconds. Skill competence models, however, predict success for a launch at the moment of observation. We propose time-indexed skill success models, which predict whole-task success when a skill is launched after a given delay. Trained on rollouts branched at a grid of launch delays, they let a receding-horizon planner select both the skill and its launch time under fixed or random latency. In a MuJoCo study in which a UR5e captures a sliding puck with three skills, the planner exceeded a static competence model by 2.8 to 6.2 percentage points at 100 to 300 ms of latency, including when that model was evaluated on point or sampled forecasts of the launch state. Across five complete runs (three training seeds and two distribution shifts), all 80 paired 95% intervals against four baselines excluded zero. On delayed launches, the time-indexed model was calibrated (expected calibration error 0.009 against 0.239), and pausing the world during latency overstated success by up to 23 points. On a real UR5e that captures a rolling ball after 0.2 s of injected latency, a static model trained in a hardware-matched simulator predicted 99% success on a prespecified subset of 35 delayed launches that it rated at least 0.8. Of these, 63% succeeded (95% interval 46 to 77%), and the time-indexed model predicted 56%. In this single-skill, predictable regime, a matched physics-based forecast was also well calibrated.