LLM-based multi-agent trading systems are moving from research prototypes to live deployments that control real assets. They ingest news and social media from the open web and pass it between agents, so a single corrupted signal can reach the final decision and cause financial loss. We study two adversaries that can introduce such signals without access to model internals: a low-barrier data adversary that plants manipulated content in web sources, and a compromised-agent adversary that tampers with an agent's prompt. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic empirical study in finance of how an adversarial signal enters a multi-agent trading system and whether it survives to alter the final trading decision. Along the role axis, we pair each of four roles---Analyst, Researcher, Trader, and Risk Manager---with an attack matched to its interface. Along the structural axis, we compare four communication topologies, interpreted with a simple parameter-free heuristic, the Adversarial Signal Preservation Score. Experiments on post-cutoff data span five assets and two target directions. We find that no architecture is inherently robust: majority voting offers conditional protection depending on benign-agent agreement, while compromising a terminal decision node can bypass upstream safeguards. These findings provide empirical insights for developing more effective defense strategies for multi-agent systems.
Hoyoung Lee, Suyeol Yun, Jack Haverty, Yunju Cho, Meesong Kim, Daekyung Park, Sumin Kim, Jihoon Kwon 等 20 位作者
Evaluating finance research agents requires rubrics that reflect expert standards and fix the values correct as of an information cutoff. Expert-reviewed finance benchmarks rely on fixed, per-item rubrics, which are costly to extend and cannot encode each institution's own standard. In FinAutoRubric, experts specify reusable evaluation guidance, while agents and code carry out query-specific rubric generation, review, and validation. This expert guidance governs every agent, as prompts and as rules that code enforces, and a Task Bank of reusable criteria carries it across tasks. In long-horizon loops that follow the expert guidance, a writer agent researches every expected value and a reviewer agent verifies it, and failures escalate to a human. On three expert-authored finance benchmarks, its rubrics track expert scoring as closely as the strongest evaluated generator while stating the expert rubric's expected value for more criteria, their scores agree with human grading, and in-house analysts prefer them in a blind review. The released 100-query FinAutoRubric Benchmark, built from in-house analysts' key questions across 78 tasks and eight asset classes, shows that rubrics from an earlier model generation still leave headroom for a later one.
Sumin Kim, Minjae Kim, Jihoon Kwon, Yoon Kim, Oscar Levy, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Yongjae Lee, Chanyeol Choi
Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are directly tied to natural-language descriptions, yet discovering robust lead–lag relationships remains challenging due to spurious statistical correlations. We propose a hybrid two-stage causal screener to address this challenge: (i) a statistical stage that uses Granger causality to identify candidate leader–follower pairs from market-implied probability time series, and (ii) an LLM-based semantic stage that re-ranks these candidates by assessing whether the proposed direction admits a plausible economic transmission mechanism based on event descriptions. Because causal ground truth is unobserved, we evaluate the ranked pairs using a fixed, signal-triggered trading protocol that maps relationship quality into realized profit and loss (PnL).On Kalshi Economics markets, our hybrid approach consistently outperforms the statistical baseline. Across rolling evaluations, the win rate increases from 51.4% to 54.5%. Crucially, the average magnitude of losing trades decreases substantially from 649 USD to 347 USD. This reduction is driven by the LLM’s ability to filter out statistically fragile links that are prone to large losses, rather than relying on rare gains. These improvements remain stable across different trading configurations, indicating that the gains are not driven by specific parameter choices. Overall, the results suggest that LLMs function as semantic risk managers on top of statistical discovery, prioritizing lead–lag relationships that generalize under changing market conditions.
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Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 6: Industry Track) · 2026 · 正式发表