Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly support long-horizon tasks by leveraging external memory and past experience. However, existing agents mainly retrieve records or summaries, lacking the ability to form and refine causal understanding of the world. Inspired by human causal cognition, we introduce CauProphet, an agent that develops and updates causal knowledge within its Causal Cognition. For each task, CauProphet combines relevant knowledge in Causal Cognition with current evidence to construct a Causal Belief, a structured belief capturing causal factors and the effects of possible actions. It uses this belief for decision-making and continuously updates both the belief and Causal Cognition as new observations emerge, enabling causal knowledge that persists beyond individual experiences. Evaluations demonstrate that CauProphet progressively acquires causal knowledge and transfers it to future decision-making. In financial research, CauProphet leverages prior discoveries to improve downstream analyses and outperforms all baselines in mean rank correlation with next-day returns, achieving a 25.4% improvement over a baseline agent. It also improves prediction accuracy from 21.3% to 28.6% in dynamic real-world settings. Further experiments validate its ability to perform reliable causal analysis and action selection across scientific and everyday tasks, demonstrating the potential of causal experience learning for next-generation LLM agents. The project repository is available at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauProphet.
Jiawei Zhou, Bo Peng, Yuxuan Huang, Ming Zhang, Youbang Sun, Xiang Wang, Chaochao Lu
Skill optimizers adapt an agent to long-horizon tasks, such as repairing a terminal environment, by rewriting its skill, a natural-language procedure in its context, and keeping the edits that raise success on a small dev set. On such tasks success is noisy, so a gain on a small dev set does not show that an edit helps, and a success score does not show what the edit costs. We introduce BiPA, which replays an optimizer's acceptance rule on candidates identical to its seed to measure what selection alone reports, and records each episode as a bipartite graph of turns and the text they read to trace extra input tokens to the behavior behind them. Across three optimizers, three agentic benchmarks and two models, the learned skills succeed about as often as their hand-written seed, 0.1 points higher on average. Their dev gains vanish on test: keeping the best of several candidates on at most 30 tasks reports gains this large even when none changed. They read about 16% more input tokens: the optimizers almost always add rules, half to re-check work and some to act one call at a time, and the agent follows them as extra turns, each re-sending the whole conversation. Four principles follow: accept an edit only if its gain exceeds what selection alone reports; charge it for the turns it adds, not for its length; let the editor delete and merge rules; show it what earlier rules cost. Code is available at https://github.com/valleysprings/BiPA.git.