Yang Li, Yike Wang, Di Wan, Chujun He, Zongsi Xu, Yitao Yu, Shuai Zhong, Minghao Pan 等 23 位作者
Simulating economic responses at society scale requires decision rules that respond to household circumstances and accounting rules that track their consequences. We introduce S$^2$-MAS, a multi-agent simulation framework with a resource of 500 million synthetic household personas. It combines trainable candidate-scoring policies, reusable financial scenarios and explicit state transitions. Trained with SFT + RLCD on 2.93 million examples, YN-mini-MLX achieves 74.55% accuracy and 38.37% question-macro F1 on held-out consumer financial-choice tasks, improving on the training-question majority baseline by 2.78 and 6.21 percentage points. A completed application evaluates 12 million distinct households in two purchase-funding conditions: 24 million one-shot choices feed 288 million monthly ledger states in 3 h 59 min on 14 GPUs. Jointly increasing purchase goals and approved limits produces heterogeneous consumption, cash and repayment paths, with much of the consumption variation arising from transitions between deferral and purchase. In a separate 1,060-household retrospective consumption experiment, standalone YN-master-9B has 3.42% lower annual MAE than the deterministic fully rational benchmark, alongside a 19.7% lower predicted population mean than observed. Information-timing tests show how year labels and later outcome information change decisions. Together, these experiments establish an executable alternative for studying heterogeneous household behavior with learned policies and explicit financial accounting.
Eser Aygün, Anastasiya Belyaeva, Gheorghe Comanici, Marc Coram, Hao Cui, Jake Garrison, Renee Johnston Anton Kast, Cory Y. McLean 等 42 位作者
The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments\cite{hannay2009how}. To address this, we present Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS)\cite{silver2016mastering} to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. ERA achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a diverse range of tasks. In bioinformatics, ERA discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, ERA generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. ERA also produced expert-level software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, and numerical solution of integrals, and a novel rule-based construction for time series forecasting. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, ERA represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.