Detecting Historical Turning Points in Italian Media: A Complex Systems Approach to a Diachronic News Corpus
Dario Zarcone, Salvatore Miccichè, David Sanchez
Introduction: The increasing availability of large-scale textual corpora has opened new possibilities for data-driven, quantitative approaches to historical analysis using Natural Language Processing (NLP). However, diachronic corpora with historical relevance from the pre-digital era remain scarce and often incomplete. Methods: We present a quantitative approach to historical analysis based on the reconstruction and exploration of a diachronic corpus of around 600,000 articles from the Italian newspaper "La Repubblica", covering all the articles published from the first of January 1985 to the 31st of December 2000 - a period of major political, social, and geopolitical change in Italy and globally. Using NLP techniques, we analyze the text at both lexical and semantic levels; we then apply tools from complex systems and statistical physics to trace shifts in media discourse over time. Results: The word usage in the corpus is bursty, with a heavy-tailed distribution of Fano factors that is robust across timescales. Changepoints in word salience and the block structure of semantic similarity allow us to detect key transition periods, such as the transition from the First Republic to the Second Republic in Italy, or major international conflicts like the Gulf War or the Kosovo War, without relying on prior labeling. Periods of war correspond to lower entropy in the semantic space, indicating a more focused discourse. Discussion: The results show how combining computational linguistics with ideas from complex systems can offer new quantitative insight into historical changes, opening up new paths for studying the dynamics of media and society through large-scale textual data.
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