Crowds Believe in You: Online Prediction Markets Overestimate How Often People Achieve Their Own Goals
Zihan Chen, Lei Nico Zheng, Di Zhu
AI 速览：基于 Manifold 上 6,150 个自我目标预测市场的订单重建，作者报告自我市场比外部事件市场更常被高估，且纠偏信息主要掌握在当事人手中。
People increasingly share personal goals online and invite others to forecast them. Research on the planning fallacy finds that observers predict a person's behavior less optimistically than the person does, and prediction markets aggregate such judgments, harnessing the wisdom of crowds. We study 6,150 prediction markets on Manifold in which 1,660 users asked about their own futures ("Will I ...?"), reconstruct every order and execution, and compare these self-markets with markets about external events. Self-markets resolved YES 4.4 percentage points less often than their final prices implied, whereas external markets were nearly calibrated (0.9 points); the difference was 2.2 points at the same price level and 1.9 points within creators who made both kinds of market. Absent when markets opened, the overstatement emerged within a day of trading, even where the person never traded, and peaked in the week before close. In a market's first day, observers moved external-market prices down toward the base rate, but moved self-market prices 3.6 points further toward YES, except in markets naming an outcome the person would not want, which were not overpriced. The correction came late and largely from the person, whose orders supplied 38% of the eventual movement toward the outcome in self-markets, against 9% in external markets. Because self-market prices mainly failed to separate successes from failures, a recalibration learned from earlier markets improved later forecasts by only 1.5%. Crowds believe in the futures people pose for themselves, and the information that would correct them lies with the person.
Distributional metrics such as Fréchet Audio Distance cannot score individual music clips and correlate poorly with human judgments, while the only per-sample learned metric achieving high human correlation is closed-source. We introduce MUQ-EVAL, an open-source per-sample quality metric for AIgenerated music built by training lightweight prediction heads on frozen MuQ-310M features using MusicEval, a dataset of generated clips from 31 text-to-music systems with expert quality ratings. Our simplest model, frozen features with attention pooling and a two-layer MLP, achieves system-level SRCC = 0.957 and utterance-level SRCC = 0.838 with human mean opinion scores. A systematic ablation over training objectives and adaptation strategies shows that no addition meaningfully improves the frozen baseline, indicating that frozen MuQ representations already capture quality-relevant information. Encoder choice is the dominant design factor, outweighing all architectural and training decisions. LoRA-adapted models trained on as few as 150 clips already achieve usable correlation, enabling personalized quality evaluators from individual listener annotations. A controlled degradation analysis reveals selective sensitivity to signal-level artifacts but insensitivity to musical-structural distortions. Our metric, MUQ-EVAL, is fully open-source, outperforms existing open per-sample metrics, and runs in real time on a single consumer GPU. Code, model weights, and evaluation scripts are available at https://github.com/dgtql/MuQ-Eval.
Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown great promise for robotic manipulation by mapping multi-modal semantics to physical actions. However, this mapping inherently struggles to align these coarse-grained semantics with fine-grained temporal execution. It leaves VLA models with limited generalization and insufficient robustness in cluttered environments. To overcome this issue, we propose ActionUNet, an efficient multi-scale fine-tuning framework that enhances pre-trained VLA models with minimal computational cost. ActionUNet first constructs a lightweight temporal U-Net within the temporal-aligned action feature space to fuse hierarchical structural priors, effectively bridging the scale gap between semantics and temporal executions. Recognizing that multi-scale modeling can disrupt microscopic temporal continuity and cause mechanical oscillations, ActionUNet then employs a conditional SIREN as a continuous action decoder. Equipped with explicit second-order smoothness constraints, this decoder guarantees temporal continuity and reduces high-frequency motion jitter. By smoothing temporal discontinuities from multi-scale fusion, this continuous formulation reduces mechanical execution failures while preserving the base VLA model's generalization and manipulation robustness. Extensive experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 and LIBERO-Plus benchmarks, together with real-world hard evaluations, demonstrate that ActionUNet significantly improves π0.5 success rates by absolute 9.8%, 6.1%, and 11.4%, respectively, while also generalizing to the regression-based OpenVLA-OFT backbone, highlighting its effectiveness and efficiency as a fine-tuning strategy. Code and implementation details are available at https://github.com/Di-Zhu123/ActionUNet.
Generative AI now produces images and poems that people cannot reliably distinguish from human-made work, so people often judge for themselves who made a work. We examine how these perceived-authorship judgments relate to aesthetic preference. In a public online AI Art Turing Test, 11,123 people judged whether each of 50 pictures (26 AI-generated) was made by a human and were asked for their favourite. Among the 9,152 respondents who judged their favourite, a picture was 22.1 percentage points more likely to be judged human-made when it was the respondent's favourite, holding respondent and picture fixed. The association was similar for AI-generated and human-made favourites, was positive for all 50 pictures, and appeared under every reported detection strategy. Respondents most negative about AI art chose fewer AI-generated favourites (47% against 60% among the most positive) but more often believed them human-made, partly because others also judged those pictures human. As a result, in every opinion group a third to two fifths of respondents named an AI-generated favourite they believed human-made. A reanalysis of a published experiment on AI-generated poetry, in which 230 people rated each poem before judging its authorship, found the same pattern, although the AI poems were rated higher. When provenance is hidden, liking and perceived human authorship travel together, consistent with aesthetic response serving as evidence of a human maker and with beliefs about the maker shaping enjoyment. The findings qualify research on bias against AI art, which typically uses explicit labels, and inform AI disclosure policy.
Attack logs and red-team reports show targets the attacks used against them, to help them repair their defenses. Prompt injections against large language models (LLMs) are plain text, so such records also hand targets a working copy. Drawing on social learning theory and work on the victim-offender overlap, we study what targets do with that copy in Tensor Trust, an online game whose players defended LLM-guarded accounts, attacked one another's, and could read every attack they received. Using all 563,349 attack records, we compare each received attack with matched attacks that circulated among similar players at the same moment but never reached the target. Reuse mainly followed success: within a week, targets attacked other players with 10.0% of the attacks that had broken their defense, versus 0.03% of matched attacks (adjusted difference: 8.8-10.0 percentage points). Near-misses, whose replies began with "access granted" but that scored as failures, were reused about as rarely as failures: reuse tracked whether an attack paid off, not how its reply read, consistent with payoff-biased social learning. Breaches were also followed by defense changes, after which same-family attacks became 24.5 percentage points less successful against the target, relative to other defenders. Reuse came mainly from players already attacking, not newcomers. Previously received texts accounted for 23.2% of the successful hijacks we analyze. The attack history thus served both repair and reuse; we derive testable hypotheses for how AI security tools should disclose attacks, such as describing the technique without the full text.
Di Zhu, Yu Yvonne Wu, Hong Jia, Aaqib Saeed, Vassilis Kostakos, Ting Dang
Wearable devices provide continuous access to physiological signals such as ECG and PPG, offering a path to answering users' questions about their own physiological state and to early detection of cardiac and physiological abnormalities. Yet existing mobile health (mHealth) systems are largely limited to task-specific prediction pipelines or reactive question answering over static summaries. They lack the temporal reasoning, persistent physiological context, and proactive monitoring required for long-term signal streams. To advance this setting, we introduce VitalBench, a longitudinal physiological monitoring benchmark comprising 1,862 QA pairs for reactive question answering and 90.2 hours of continuous ECG/PPG recordings for proactive monitoring, covering cardiac, physical activity, and stress-related tasks. Building on this resource, we propose VitalAgent, a tool-augmented agentic framework for ECG/PPG-based mHealth that supports both reactive question answering and proactive monitoring. VitalAgent is built on a longitudinal physiological memory and a tool-augmented reasoning interface that enables dynamic computation over raw signals. Experiments demonstrate that VitalAgent achieves over 25 points absolute improvement over prompt-based and agentic baselines in reactive evaluation and enables proactive alert monitoring over long-term physiological signals, pointing toward mHealth systems that can both answer questions about and continuously monitor a person's physiological state beyond the clinic.