Adrien Petralia, Alexandre Gavaudan, Artjom Joosen, Etienne Goffinet, Richard Kurle, Yassine El Ouahidi, Yassir Bendou, Abdelaziz Bounhar 等 356 位作者
We introduce Timestral, a family of four time series foundation models for probabilistic forecasting, with 5M, 28M, 123M, and 209M parameters. Timestral sets a new state of the art on GIFT-Eval, TIME, and fev-bench, where Timestral-209M and Timestral-123M take the top two places on every metric. We achieve this with three ingredients: Decoupled Horizon Forecasting (DHF), which separates prediction tokens from the causally encoded context, so that longer horizons are trained without masking context and each observed value is both a forecast target and context for later forecasts; a covariate framework that natively supports known-future covariates within a causal architecture; and a two-stage pipeline that pretrains exclusively on a diverse, large-scale synthetic corpus before post-training on a mix of real and synthetic data with extended context. This report describes the model design and its benchmark results. Weights for all four models are available on Hugging Face and inference code on GitHub.
Gemini Team, Petko Georgiev, Ving Ian Lei, Ryan Burnell, Libin Bai, Anmol Gulati, Garrett Tanzer, Damien Vincent 等 1137 位作者
In this report, we introduce the Gemini 1.5 family of models, representing the next generation of highly compute-efficient multimodal models capable of recalling and reasoning over fine-grained information from millions of tokens of context, including multiple long documents and hours of video and audio. The family includes two new models: (1) an updated Gemini 1.5 Pro, which exceeds the February version on the great majority of capabilities and benchmarks; (2) Gemini 1.5 Flash, a more lightweight variant designed for efficiency with minimal regression in quality. Gemini 1.5 models achieve near-perfect recall on long-context retrieval tasks across modalities, improve the state-of-the-art in long-document QA, long-video QA and long-context ASR, and match or surpass Gemini 1.0 Ultra's state-of-the-art performance across a broad set of benchmarks. Studying the limits of Gemini 1.5's long-context ability, we find continued improvement in next-token prediction and near-perfect retrieval (>99%) up to at least 10M tokens, a generational leap over existing models such as Claude 3.0 (200k) and GPT-4 Turbo (128k). Finally, we highlight real-world use cases, such as Gemini 1.5 collaborating with professionals on completing their tasks achieving 26 to 75% time savings across 10 different job categories, as well as surprising new capabilities of large language models at the frontier; when given a grammar manual for Kalamang, a language with fewer than 200 speakers worldwide, the model learns to translate English to Kalamang at a similar level to a person who learned from the same content.