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原文摘要

Reasoning LLMs often continue reasoning after reaching a correct answer, wasting computation and sometimes replacing it with an incorrect one. Deciding when to stop is a metareasoning problem: the model must weigh what further reasoning could achieve against its cost, given what it can already answer. Direct utility training learns a stopping representation at a chosen token price; supporting new prices can require additional controller training. We introduce BELT (BELief-based Termination), which separates outcome prediction from stopping control. It learns beliefs about current and future answers from a frozen LLM's hidden states, then fits a linear stopping policy on the frozen features. The prediction targets are independent of token price, so one probe supports different accuracy-cost trade-offs through CPU policy refitting or threshold adjustment. Averaged over five out-of-distribution (OOD) math benchmarks, BELT reduces generated tokens by 41% on Qwen3-1.7B and 51% on OLMo-3-7B-Think without loss of accuracy. The same math-trained BELT transfers to coding and agentic tasks without training on code or agentic data. In all three domains, its accuracy-cost trade-offs are competitive with or better than those of end-to-end controllers. On OLMo3, its probe has 21.2x fewer parameters than one checkpoint of the strongest baseline, OS-Pruner, and needs 55x fewer training GPU-hours than OS-Pruner's five price-specific checkpoints.