Daniel Collin, Yuri Shprits, Luca Chiarabini, Stefan J. Hofmeister, Nadja Klein, Guillermo Gallego
Accurately predicting fast solar wind conditions is challenging, as uncertainties are large and unquantified by traditional single-value prediction models. In particular, the risks of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), which can cause damage to technological infrastructure, cannot be reliably assessed without probabilistic forecasts. We present PROSWIN, a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts the hourly solar wind speed (SWS) at Earth with a four-day lead time. The approach combines solar images and magnetograms using a deep neural network coupled to a distributional regression algorithm. Because standard error metrics underweight the relevance of HSS peaks, we further introduce the prediction score, a model-selection metric that jointly rewards timeline and HSS peak accuracy. On 14 years of data, our forecast achieves very well-calibrated uncertainties (<1% average deviation). Using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a metric that assesses distributional accuracy, we obtain a timeline CRPS of 41.0 km/s, an HSS peak CRPS of 45.3 km/s, and a prediction score of 42.3 km/s. We find that the 171 Å channel is an important complement to the typically used 193 Å and 211 Å channels and that the prediction score for model selection improves the applicability of the model. Compared to selected models from the literature, ours is the only one that is accurate for both timeline and HSS peak values, rather than trading one off against the other. These results support the advantages of probabilistic over single-value solar wind models. The introduced methods are also transferable to other forecasting problems.
Sheng Zhong, Junkai Niu, Guillermo Gallego, Kaizhen Sun, Yang Yi, Zhiqiang Miao, Dewen Hu, Yaonan Wang 等 10 位作者
Event-based cameras are bio-inspired sensors with pixels that independently and asynchronously respond to brightness changes at microsecond resolution, offering the potential to handle visual tasks in high-speed maneuvering scenarios. Existing event-based approaches, although successful in mitigating motion blur caused by high-speed maneuvers, suffer from many limitations. Some of them highlight a success of pose tracking for a fronto-parallel fast shaking camera closed to the structure, while others assume pure (optionally aggressive) three-degree-of-freedom rotations. The former requires persistent local map visibility within the field of view (FOV), whereas the latter fails to generalize to six-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) motions where both linear and angular velocities may be large. Consequently, current successes do not fully demonstrate that event-based state estimation under arbitrary aggressive maneuvers is a fully solved problem. To quantitatively assess the extent to which the potential of event cameras has been unlocked, we conduct a thorough analysis of state-of-the-art (SOTA) event-based visual odometry (VO)/visual-inertial odometry (VIO) methods and report shortcomings in current public datasets. Furthermore, we introduce a benchmarking framework for event-based state estimation, called EvSLAM, characterized by sufficient variation in data collection platforms, diverse extreme lighting scenarios, and a wide scope of challenging motion patterns under a clear and rigorous definition of high-speed maneuvers for mobile robots, along with a novel evaluation metric designed to fairly assess the operational limits of event-based solutions. This framework benchmarks state-of-the-art methods, yielding insights into optimal architectures and persistent challenges.