Michael Y. Hu, Jane Pan, Ayush Rajesh Jhaveri, Nicholas Lourie, Kyunghyun Cho
Neural scaling laws predict how language model performance improves with increased training inputs. While aggregate metrics like validation loss can follow smooth power-law curves, individual downstream tasks exhibit diverse scaling behaviors: some improve monotonically, others plateau, and some even degrade with scale. We argue that predicting downstream performance from validation loss suffers from two limitations: averaging token-level losses obscures signal, and no simple parametric family can capture the full spectrum of scaling behaviors. To address this, we propose Neural Neural Scaling Laws (NeuNeu), a neural network that frames scaling law prediction as time-series extrapolation. NeuNeu combines temporal context from observed accuracy trajectories with token-level validation losses, learning to predict future performance without the limitations inherent in assuming a specific functional form. Trained entirely on open-source model checkpoints from HuggingFace, NeuNeu achieves 1.99% mean absolute error in predicting model accuracy on 66 downstream tasks -- a 44% reduction compared to logistic scaling laws (3.56% MAE). Furthermore, NeuNeu generalizes zero-shot to unseen model families, architectures, parameter counts, and downstream tasks. Our work suggests that predicting downstream scaling directly from data outperforms parametric alternatives.
Jane Pan, You Lyu, Abe Bohan Hou, Valerie Chen, He He
LLM agents increasingly interact with other agents on behalf of users, yet how users in the loop affect their agents' behavior--for better or worse--remains poorly understood. We study this question through the lens of negotiation, where agents must represent users while strategically bargaining with other agents. To isolate the effect of user presence, we develop PRESENT, a controlled evaluation framework that compares negotiation settings with and without an interactive user, while holding the game, objectives, and user preferences fixed across conditions. Across 11.2k runs spanning 7 games and 8 models, we find that user presence significantly changes both outcomes and behavior. Specifically, negotiation parties with a user obtain higher payouts (+13.7% on average) and their agents negotiate more aggressively. Surprisingly, user presence also induces misaligned behavior, both toward counterparties (where its rate roughly doubles) and toward users (where it emerges in 14.3% of games). These misaligned behaviors are uncorrelated with outcomes and persist even when the user sends only templated, neutral messages. These findings expose two blind spots in current evaluation practice: static instructions miss behaviors that emerge only when users are present, and outcome-level metrics cannot detect them.