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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.14401

发现南亚季风降水热力学的方程

Discovering Equations for the Thermodynamics of South Asian Monsoon Precipitation

Savannah L. Ferretti, Jane W. Baldwin, Michael S. Pritchard, Tom Beucler

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该研究用符号蒸馏从21年再分析资料中学习可解释的南亚季风降水方程,其解释方差约为常用浮力诊断的1.5倍,并保留约85%的神经网络技巧。

cs.LG · physics.ao-ph

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South Asian monsoon precipitation depends on the thermodynamic structure of the lower troposphere, but how its ingredients combine to shape precipitation remains unclear, partly because this dependence is nonlocal in the vertical. We use symbolic distillation, which combines neural networks and symbolic regression, to discover interpretable precipitation equations from 21 years of June-August reanalysis data. Neural networks first learn the vertical thermodynamic structure most relevant to precipitation, condensing each variable into a single interpretable feature not tied to a particular vertical grid. Then, symbolic regression derives closed-form equations from these features and the surface state. Our best equation explains 1.5 times as much precipitation variance as a widely used buoyancy-based diagnostic and recovers about 85% of neural network skill while using about a thousand times fewer parameters. Unlike the buoyancy diagnostic, which adds moisture and instability, the equations treat them as competing controls, with the heaviest precipitation occurring when the lower free troposphere is humid. Over ocean, sensible heating is associated with additional precipitation mainly when near-surface air is warm and moist, improving predicted precipitation and its diurnal cycle. Although the learned features were optimized only for precipitation prediction, the equations largely respond to each feature as expected from convective physics, consistent with the reanalysis. These responses reduce the dependence of monsoon precipitation on the entire vertical column to a few simple, testable constraints that could guide data-driven precipitation models to make them more physically consistent.