Multistep and Multivariate Time Series Explainability with GradientSHAP: A Wind Power Case Study
Robbie Southam, Zhong Fan, Ke Li
AI 速览：作者将适配后的GradientSHAP用于多变量、多步风电功率预测的可解释性分析，并通过新可视化同时给出局部与全局解释。
As the effects of climate change become increasingly apparent, the demand for renewable energy sources such as wind power continues to grow. However, renewables' variable and intermittent nature presents significant challenges in their integration into energy grids. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool to address these issues. Still, its adoption in the energy sector has been hindered by the opacity of many AI models, which often function as black boxes. This paper introduces a carefully adapted GradientSHAP approach to provide interpretability for multivariate, multistep wind power forecasting -- a largely underexplored area. This capability is critical for day-ahead grid management and, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply GradientSHAP in the context of wind power forecasting. To address the inherent dimensionality, we developed novel visualizations that deliver both local and global explanations, uncovering intricate relationships between environmental factors, site-specific conditions, and temporal dynamics. While GradientSHAP is not an out-of-the-box solution, our findings demonstrate that, with thoughtful handling of SHAP values and domain expertise, it can offer valuable insights into model behaviour, supporting more informed and trustworthy decision-making. Nevertheless, its complexity poses challenges for practical implementation. Future research should focus on streamlining these interpretability methods to make them more actionable for routine deployment in critical energy applications.
Multi-hop Knowledge Base Question Answering (KBQA) aims to find answer entities in the knowledge base that are multiple hops away from the entities in the question. Information retrieval-based (IR-based) methods extract a pivotal subgraph from the entire KB to locate candidate answers and then evaluate their plausibility through semantic matching with the question. However, we observed that the extracted subgraphs often include nodes that are weakly related or irrelevant to the question. Without a proper node filtering mechanism, the number of irrelevant nodes grows as the number of hops increases, leading to excessive consumption of computational resources. To address these challenges, this study introduces an efficient LLM-based subgraph retrieval method for multi-hop knowledge base question answering, M-ER. The framework leverages Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to transform subgraph exploration into a tree-structured search process. During the MCTS selection phase, nodes that are highly relevant to the question are prioritized for inclusion in the subgraph, eliminating the need to traverse all nodes in the KB. The framework further incorporates a large language model (LLM) to refine the search direction, ensuring that exploration remains focused on nodes relevant to the question. In addition, selected nodes are quantitatively scored, and these scores are fed back into the node selection process to effectively filter out irrelevant candidates, thereby improving the quality of the subgraph. This mechanism not only narrows the search space but also enhances the overall efficiency of multi-hop KBQA. Experiments on the WebQSP benchmark demonstrate that M-ER achieves 78.88\% on the Hits@1 metric, while also improving computational efficiency. These results not only validate the effectiveness of M-ER, but also offer a viable technical path to balance performance and computational efficiency.
Local deployment of MoE-based LLMs on CPU-GPU nodes is attractive for cost and privacy reasons, yet limited GPU memory forces most experts into CPU memory. Prefill is then compute-bound and benefits from aggressive GPU loading, while decode is I/O-bound and requires conservative PCIe transfers. These demands cannot be amortized under low batching---typical of local assistants and document tools---forcing phase-agnostic schedulers into a seesaw: favoring prefill's aggressive loading injects unmaskable I/O that stalls decode, while favoring decode's conservative transfers starves prefill's GPU of work. We observe that expert routing is predictable in phase-specific ways, allowing us to decouple the two phases and optimize prediction, scheduling, and execution independently for each phase. PDScope predicts expert activations to guide placement and prefetching, adapts these policies to each phase's bottleneck via cross-layer cost modeling, and compiles decisions into overhead-free pipelines using a static computation graph, cache prefetching, and zero-copy asynchronous I/O. On mainstream MoE models, PDScope achieves 2.5-10.3x higher prefill throughput and 2.1-6.1x higher decode throughput than existing systems, showing that phase-aware co-design unlocks efficient MoE inference under memory constraints and extends naturally to multi-batch settings.
Microservice architectures rely on load balancers to distribute requests across service replicas, yet existing designs largely optimize for balanced routing without considering how routing shapes autoscaling signals and resource efficiency. We present Slant, a resource-aware load balancing framework that intentionally creates safe traffic imbalance to improve resource utilization. Slant profiles service-specific critical points, computes conservative multi-dimensional capacity, derives imbalance-aware routing weights that maintain hot and cold pods, and falls back to safer behavior under anomalies. By exposing clearer utilization signals, Slant works with existing vertical pod autoscalers (VPAs) without modification. Experiments on three microservice benchmarks show that Slant reduces allocated CPU cores by up to 26\% while lowering P99 latency by up to 18\% compared to Round-Robin. Under dynamic workloads, Slant triggers VPA scale-up 45\% faster and completes scale-in 40\% faster. Under anomalies, it recovers 40\% faster from pod failures and limits latency amplification to 1.8$\times$ versus 2.6$\times$ during downstream slowdowns.
Emma Reyner-Fuentes, Sebastian Rudolph, Carmen Peláez-Moreno, Francisco J. Valverde-Albacete
Brains do not simply add up every signal they receive: they select which routes dominate. Yet connectomes are usually analyzed with tools that sum over all paths and place neural states in Euclidean spaces, blurring the feedback circuits that may sustain internal states. Here we treat neural signaling as routing instead of diffusion and describe it with max-plus algebra, in which signals accumulate along a path and the strongest route prevails. We propose a model in which the functional connectome of Caenorhabditis elegans emerges from the time-varying combination of electrical, synaptic, monoaminergic, neuropeptidergic and hormonal layers, and analyze five networks within this framework. Each collapses onto a handful of dominant feedback loops, which recover well-characterized circuits and point to new candidates for experimental study. Unlike linear spectra, these structures keep the biological meaning of the data, and their order-based description suggests that brain states live in lattices rather than Euclidean spaces.
Mathis Immertreu, Achim Schilling, Thomas Kinfe, Patrick Krauss
Neural language models are typically trained on next-token prediction, although linguistic structure spans multiple temporal scales. Successor representations (SRs) make this horizon explicit by encoding discounted distributions over future states. Here, we ask whether such predictive representations can recover not only word classes, but also finer functional and construction-like structure from natural language. A residual network trained on WikiText-103 predicts SR distributions at three horizons without part-of-speech supervision. At the shortest horizon, unsupervised clustering robustly recovers nouns, verbs, and adjectives, while directed inter-cluster transitions reproduce familiar syntactic asymmetries. At finer resolutions and across 13 part-of-speech categories, the same geometry reveals semantic-functional groupings that cross category boundaries and directed relations tracing candidate date, measurement, and title-name constructions. Part-of-speech agreement declines as the predictive horizon lengthens. These results suggest that word classes are coarse regions within a richer predictive geometry in which categorical and construction-like linguistic structure emerge from future-word distributions.
Embodied assistants in domestic environments must infer what happened, where and when it occurred, and how to respond. To address this, we introduce RMS-AQA, a spatial audio question answering (SAQA) benchmark for real-world domestic environments. The benchmark features a two-stage question-answering (QA) format to comprehensively assess the ability of audio-language models (ALMs) to first ground audible sound events and subsequently perform complex spatio-temporal reasoning based on that grounding. To maximize acoustic realism, our dataset combines authentic real-world first-order Ambisonics (FOA) recordings with high-fidelity synthetic data generated using measured room impulse responses (RIRs). Furthermore, we provide a lightweight spatial plug-in that injects FOA-format data into frozen audio-language backbones. Experimental results reveal that the primary challenges stem from concurrent sources, far distance, and sim-to-real domain gap between RIR-synthesized and authentic recordings.
Junhan Liu, Zhenke Liu Brown University, Yongcheng Shi, Peilin Yu Apple, Minxing Zhang, Jiapeng Zhang University of Southern California
Gardener is an interactive agentic system for single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) analysis that enables expert-steered, iterative workflows under strict data-residency requirements. Existing large language model (LLM)-based analysis agents commonly encode workflow progress as implicit conversational state and rely on cloud-centric execution, which hinders traceability and auditability and complicates keeping sensitive expression data on-device. Gardener grounds cloud-side reasoning in a local, on-device scientific engine and an Experiment Management Kernel (EMK) that externalizes analysis progress as persistent, immutable snapshots linked by lineage. This explicit state representation supports rollback, branching, and comparison of alternative analysis paths while reusing prior computation. Gardener enforces data isolation by design: cloud-hosted LLMs operate only on snapshot identifiers and sanitized summaries, while raw expression matrices and local artifacts remain on the user’s device. A local graphical user interface (GUI) provides human-in-the-loop steering and inspection of workflow state and outputs. Gardener is released as an open-source desktop application for macOS and Windows under the Apache License 2.0.
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cs.CL · cs.AI
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 3: System Demonstrations) · 2026 · 正式发表
The evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation relies heavily on the quality and robustness of test cases. However, existing benchmarks often lack coverage for subtle corner cases, allowing incorrect solutions to pass. To bridge this gap, we propose CodeHacker, an automated agent framework dedicated to generating targeted adversarial test cases that expose latent vulnerabilities in program submissions. Mimicking the hack mechanism in competitive programming, CodeHacker employs a multi-strategy approach—including stress testing, anti-hash attacks, and logic-specific targeting to break specific code submissions. To ensure the validity and reliability of these attacks, we introduce a Calibration Phase, where the agent iteratively refines its own Validator and Checker via self-generated adversarial probes before evaluating contestant code. Experiments demonstrate that CodeHacker significantly improves the True Negative Rate (TNR) of existing datasets, effectively filtering out incorrect solutions that were previously accepted. Furthermore, generated adversarial cases prove to be superior training data, boosting the performance of RL-trained models on benchmarks like LiveCodeBench. All code, datasets, and evaluation scripts will be open-sourced to promote further investigation in LLMs for competitive programming.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Yuhang Zhou Meta, Mingrui Zhang, Ke Li, Mingyi Wang Facebook, Qiao Liu City University of New York, Qifei Wang, Jiayi Liu Meta Platforms Inc., Fei Liu Meta 等 15 位作者
Understanding and reasoning over tables is a critical capability for many real-world applications. Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise on this task, but current approaches remain limited. Fine-tuning based methods strengthen language reasoning; yet they are prone to arithmetic errors and hallucination. In contrast, tool-based methods enable precise table manipulation but rely on rigid schemas and lack semantic understanding. These complementary drawbacks highlight the need for approaches that integrate robust reasoning with reliable table processing. In this work, we propose MIXTURE-OF-MINDS, a multi-agent framework that decomposes table reasoning into three specialized roles: planning, coding, and answering. This design enables each agent to focus on a specific aspect of the task while leveraging code execution for precise table manipulation. Building on this workflow, we introduce a self-improvement training framework that employs Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) rollouts to generate pseudo-gold trajectories and optimize agents with reinforcement learning (RL). Extensive experiments show that MIXTURE-OF-MINDS delivers substantial gains, reaching 62.13% on TableBench and surpassing GPT-o3-mini. These results demonstrate the promise of combining structured multi-agent workflows with RL to advance table understanding.
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cs.CL · cs.MA
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Kevin Du Department of Computer Science, ETHZ - ETH Zurich, Clara Kümpel ETHZ - ETH Zurich, Michelle Wastl, Alex Warstadt University of California, San Diego
Users frequently express their beliefs to large language models (LLMs). In some situations, the LLM should accept these contextual beliefs as true. In others, they should stick to their prior knowledge. Notably, users’ expressions of belief (EoBs) can take linguistically diverse forms—using presuppositions, evidential and certainty markers, or varied tones—each of which may have a different persuasiveness over the LLMs. We introduce a typology to systematically evaluate how different EoBs affect whether models follow context versus prior knowledge. The typology is grounded in four linguistically motivated dimensions: form, evidentiality, epistemic stance, and tone, spanning 17 fine-grained types. By pairing these EoBs with world knowledge facts, we generate controlled EoB–query pairs that isolate the effect of linguistic variation. Using this benchmark, we evaluate 16 LLMs that differ in architecture (Llama3, Qwen3, Gemma3), scale (1B-30B parameters), and training stages (base vs instruct). We identify meaningful variations in response behavior across these axes, e.g., that bigger models and instruction models tend to be less context–following than smaller models and base models. We further identify specific EoBs that statistically significantly persuade LMs more consistently than others. Our work reveals systematic patterns in how linguistic framing affects LLM context integration, with implications for prompt engineering and model robustness.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Hongju Su, Ke Li Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Lan Yang, Honggang Zhang Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Yi-Zhe Song University of Surrey
Existing state-of-the-art symbolic music generation models represent symbolic music as a sequence of attribute tokens with fixed unidirectional dependencies. However, from the perspective of music theory, the attributes of a musical note are inherently a set rather than a sequence. Building on this insight, we propose Amadeus, a novel symbolic music generation framework that adopts a two-level architecture: an autoregressive model for note sequences and a bidirectional discrete diffusion model for note attributes. This design enables flexible attribute control and adjustable decoding speed during inference. To further enhance sequential modeling, we introduce the Conditional Information Enhancement Module (CIEM). We also constructed AMD (Amadeus MIDI Dataset)—the largest open-source symbolic music dataset to date—supporting both pre-training and fine-tuning. We trained two models of different scales, Amadeus and Amadeus-M, and conducted extensive experiments, demonstrating substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods across both objective and subjective metrics.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Ya Su, Hu Zhang Shanxi University, Dan Qiao, YuJie Wang, Yunxiao Zhao Shanxi University, Yue Fan Shanxi University, Shike Li Shanxi University, Ru Li Shanxi University 等 9 位作者
Document-level Event Causality Identification (DECI) aims to identify causal relations among multiple events within unstructured text. Existing methods predominantly rely on local semantic similarity for independent event-pair discrimination, thereby overlooking the influence of the overall narrative backbone in the propagation of causal dependencies and the role differentiation of events within multi-cause/multi-effect structures. Therefore, we propose a suggest-verify-revise approach for document-level Event Causality Identification with narrative consistency (SVRECI). In the suggest stage, we integrate multi-dimensional heuristic causal suggestions generated by an LLM with structural suggestions derived from hypergraph modeling to provide multi-source initial support for candidate event pairs. In the verify stage, we introduce a Topological Hawkes process to perform constrained verification of narrative propagation consistency among events. In the revise stage, we construct a dynamically evolving document-level causal graph and incorporate a structure-aware dual-level contrastive learning mechanism at both the event and event-pair levels, iteratively reducing noisy edges over multiple iterations. Experimental results on EventStoryLine and Causal-TimeBank datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms previous methods.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have emerged as versatile solutions for zero-shot question answering (QA) across various domains. However, enabling VLMs to effectively comprehend structured graphs and perform accurate, efficient QA remains challenging. Existing approaches typically rely on a single type of graph topology representation (GTR) of graphs, such as fixed-style visual images or unified text descriptions. This "one-size-fits-all" strategy often neglects model-specific and task-specific preferences, resulting in inaccurate or overly lengthy responses to graph-related queries. To address this, we propose the DynamicGTR framework, which dynamically selects the optimal GTR for each query during inference, thereby enhancing the zero-shot graph QA capabilities of VLMs with a customizable accuracy and brevity trade-off. Extensive experiments show that DynamicGTR not only improves VLM-based graph algorithm QA performance but also successfully transfers the experience trained from synthetic graph algorithm tasks to real-world applications like link prediction and node classification, without any additional training. Additionally, DynamicGTR demonstrates strong transferability across tasks, domains, and models, suggesting its potential as a flexible solution for broad graph scenarios.
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cs.CV · cs.CL
Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · 2026 · 正式发表