Exact Selective Inference for Spectral Clustering via Piecewise-Constant Graph Perturbation
Naotoshi Nakamura
Cluster labels are often used twice: first to discover groups, and then to test whether the discovered groups differ. This double use of the data makes ordinary two-sample $p$-values anti-conservative. Selective inference fixes this by conditioning on the clustering event, but for spectral clustering the event appears difficult because the algorithm combines an affinity map, an eigendecomposition, and a rounding step. We show that, for spectral clustering based on unweighted $\varepsilon$- or $k$-nearest-neighbor graphs, the obstruction is the affinity construction rather than the eigendecomposition. Along the one-dimensional perturbation used by the truncated-$χ$ selective test, graph changes occur only at finitely many real roots of data-dependent quadratic distance comparisons. Between these breakpoints, the graph, Laplacian spectrum, embedding, rounding, and reported cluster pair are deterministic functions of a finite graph state. Consequently, in real arithmetic and under a known-scale spherical Gaussian model, the selection set is an exact finite union of intervals, yielding finite-sample selective $p$-values for selected spectral-cluster pairs. The same argument gives feature-wise truncated-normal tests. We also record direct extensions to known feature covariance, eigengap-selected $K$, and auxiliary-coordinate graphs. We validate null and partial-null calibration, operational power, numerical sensitivity, and model-scope diagnostics, and give a working-model PBMC algorithmic illustration. Smooth kernels such as RBF affinities fall outside the finite-state guarantee.
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