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新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.07069

Finite-Time Convergence and Regret Guarantees for Neural Reinforcement Learning in POMDPs

Jingjuan Huang, Zhiyao Zhang, Alvaro Velasquez, Nathaniel D. Bastian, Jia Liu

原文摘要

Reinforcement learning (RL) in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is computationally challenging due to the curse of long-range dependence on history. Fortunately, recent studies have shown that a range of POMDPs that satisfy the filter stability assumption can be well approximated by a superstate Markov Decision Process (MDP) based on a truncated history in a finite-memory window, with a value gap that decays with the window length. However, existing finite-time convergence analyses on such superstate MDP surrogates are either limited to over-simplified linear function approximation or rely on an i.i.d. sampling oracle that is violated by POMDP trajectories, both of which severely limit the applicability of these theoretical results in practice. This motivates us to bridge the gap by investigating RL in POMDPs with nonlinear neural value function approximation. Our main contributions are threefold: i) We first establish a new finite-state MDP point-wise approximation error bound, which lays the foundation for our RL algorithm design and analysis in POMDPs; ii) By applying Temporal-Difference (TD) learning to POMDP-generated superstate transitions and targeting the Bellman fixed point of the superstate MDP, we prove a finite-time critic error bound with nonlinear neural value function approximation; and iii) By combining the neural critic function approximation error bound with the policy mirror descent framework, we obtain a finite-time sublinear regret against the optimal POMDP value. To the best of our knowledge, such a finite-time sublinear regret based on neural function approximation is the first in the literature for finite-memory POMDPs. Our numerical experiments also verify our theoretical results.

cs.LG · cs.AI

新论文 · v1arXiv:2611.03357

Multidimensional Suicide Risk Assessment with Machine Learning using Electronic Health Records

Nathan Scollar, Kemal Davaslioglu, Nathan Conger, Sastry Kompella, Yalin E. Sagduyu, Nathaniel D. Bastian

原文摘要

Suicide prevention remains a critical public health challenge, and electronic health records (EHRs) provide an opportunity to characterize suicide-related risk indicators using documented clinical, behavioral, medical, and social-contextual information. This paper presents a multidimensional machine learning framework to model and estimate suicide-related outcomes using MIMIC-IV EHR data. We construct clinically motivated diagnosis categories and define a composite outcome from documented codes corresponding to suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, prior suicidal behavior, and intentional self-harm. To address severe class imbalance and reduce age-related confounding, we apply age-matched resampling that retains all positive patients and samples comparison-cohort patients from the same age group. Logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost classifiers are evaluated before and after resampling with isotonic calibration. The calibrated XGBoost model achieves the strongest matched-cohort performance, outperforming the other evaluated classifiers. SHAP-based interpretation shows that diagnostic burden, depression-related features, age, personality-disorder history, social determinants related to violence, and medical comorbidity contribute to elevated predicted probabilities. Our results demonstrate that combining broad EHR-derived features, age-matched cohort construction, calibration, and feature-level interpretation provides a practical framework for retrospective suicide-related risk modeling.

cs.LG

新论文 · v1arXiv:2610.38146

Zero Trust-Enabled Adaptive Incident Response using Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

Jisoo Lee, Bhagath Singh Bondili, Harshith Doppalapudi, Gwynith Godin, Nathaniel D. Bastian, Ankit Shah

原文摘要

Modern enterprises increasingly operate through complex information systems (IS) enabled by cloud computing, remote and hybrid work practices, and digitally integrated supply chains. These structural shifts have expanded organizational attack surfaces and weakened traditional perimeter-based trust assumptions, giving rise to new and persistent forms of cyber threats. In response, adversaries have shifted toward identity-centric, trust-based intrusion techniques that exploit legitimate access within organizational systems. This evolution has created a pronounced speed asymmetry, whereby attackers can adapt and act at machine speed while defenders remain constrained by reactive or rule-based incident response (IR) processes. Drawing on design science research, we propose ZT-AIR, an adaptive IR artifact that uses zero trust architecture as its design theory and hierarchical reinforcement learning as its kernel theory. ZT-AIR learns context-aware trust decisions, separates strategic prioritization from tactical execution, encodes zero-trust controls as actions, and jointly optimizes security effectiveness and operational continuity. Experimental results across diverse adversarial strategies, network scales, and defense environments show that ZT-AIR achieves a strong balance between security and continuity through frequent, minimally disruptive interventions. Practitioner validation further confirms the design's practical viability. This study contributes to IS research by extending computational design science from threat identification to response execution, theorizing zero trust architecture for adaptive IR, and deriving reusable design principles for adaptive decision support artifacts.

cs.CR