Toni J. B. Liu, Jiajun Bao, Gurbir Arora, Mitchell Ostrow, Yizhou Liu, Raphaël Sarfati, Nicolas Boullé, Christopher J. Earls
What does a language model predict when it has few clues?The answer lies in its unembedding geometry: a single direction of the unembedding matrix encodes the unigram distribution of the training corpus, which serves as the Bayesian prior the model falls back on when uncertain. This structure, termed the direction of ignorance, appears across all model families examined (Llama, Qwen, Gemma, and Pythia), ranging from 0.4B to 405B parameters. Projecting the final prediction state onto this direction yields a per-token prior loading factor $λ$, which declines steadily as the context becomes more informative. Formally, the same projection decomposes the prediction state into two orthogonal vectors interpretable as the two components of a tempered Bayesian update: a unigram prior raised to the exponent $λ$ and a context-driven likelihood. This geometric probabilistic connection makes $λ$ meaningfully comparable across model sizes and families. Larger models generally exhibit lower prior reliance, and reasoning models exhibit lower reliance than their base counterparts. Finally, we show that $λ$ serves as a causal, inference-time control: reducing it can promote context-driven continuations and improve Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct on GSM8K, whereas amplifying it or applying matched perturbations along random directions degrades performance.
Toni J. B. Liu, Baran Zadeoğlu, Gurbir Arora, Raphaël Sarfati, Nicolas Boullé, Christopher J. Earls
Large language models (LLMs) make next-token predictions based on clues present in their context, such as semantic descriptions and in-context examples. Yet, elucidating which prior tokens most strongly influence a given prediction remains challenging due to the proliferation of layers and attention heads in modern architectures. We propose Jacobian Scopes, a suite of gradient-based, token level causal attribution methods for interpreting LLM predictions. Grounded in perturbation theory and information geometry, Jacobian Scopes quantify how input tokens influence various aspects of a model's prediction, such as specific logits, the full predictive distribution, and model uncertainty (effective temperature). Through case studies spanning instruction understanding, translation, and in-context learning (ICL), we demonstrate how Jacobian Scopes reveal implicit political biases, uncover word- and phrase-level translation strategies, and shed light on recently debated mechanisms underlying in-context time-series forecasting. On token-ablation faithfulness benchmarks (LAMBADA and IWSLT2017) across six LLMs, the distribution-level Fisher and Temperature Scopes significantly outperform established gradient-based attribution methods in 10 of 12 model-dataset settings. To facilitate exploration of Jacobian Scopes on custom text, we open-source our implementations and provide a cloud-hosted interactive demo at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Typony/JacobianScopes.