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原文摘要

Bitcoin halvings provide a natural temporal structure for studying long-term dynamics of cryptocurrency markets. This paper presents a methodological framework for analyzing the regularity of Bitcoin and aggregate cryptocurrency market cycles by normalizing historical periods between consecutive halving events and projecting them onto a common relative-time scale expressed as the percentage of cycle completion. The proposed framework integrates market variables, namely Bitcoin price and aggregate cryptocurrency market capitalization, with measures of public attention derived from Google Trends search volume and Wikipedia pageviews. To obtain long-horizon daily attention indices, Google Trends data are reconstructed from overlapping 90-day windows linked by median scale ratios, following established approaches to combining high-frequency Google Trends samples. Rather than attempting to forecast future prices, the study aims to compare historical cycles, identify recurring temporal patterns, and evaluate the relationship between market dynamics and retail investor interest across different cycle-relative stages. Exploratory results point to a possible recurring structure. The maxima of the aggregate market capitalization in the two most recent completed cycles occurred at 39.0% and 37.9% of cycle completion, and the highest value of the ongoing cycle observed to date at 38.1% (534-547 days after the respective halvings), although the corresponding multiple of the halving-day value fell from 66 to 1.8. Public attention shows a similar compression of peak multiples, but not a similar timing. The paper also discusses current data limitations and outlines future research directions, including formal lead-lag analyses and expanded multi-asset investigations.