Forecasting requires large language model (LLM) agents to gather evolving evidence, revise their beliefs, and make calibrated predictions over time. Yet evaluating and improving these capabilities is challenging because real-world events unfold continuously and outcomes may take months to resolve. We introduce Forecast-Dojo, a replayable environment that reconstructs resolved prediction-market events as sequences of dated forecasting steps, enabling reproducible evaluation, longitudinal analysis, and training from agent interactions. It comprises 1,568 Polymarket events split temporally into training and evaluation sets, alongside 18.8 million dated news articles. Across 12 models, research tools consistently improve forecasting performance, and greater capture of new evidence is associated with larger improvements over time. Nevertheless, all models trail historical market forecasts, while carrying a belief notebook across dates reduces research costs without consistently improving forecast quality. We supervise fine-tuned Qwen3-30B-A3B-Thinking-2507 on collected trajectories from Qwen3-235B-A22B-Thinking-2507 to demonstrate the environment's training utility. The student's accuracy is improved from 34.8% to 42.8% on the evaluation set.
Forecasting an unresolved event requires finding relevant evidence and deciding how strongly it supports each outcome. Yet outcome-based training of Large Language Model (LLM) forecasters often begins with preassembled evidence at a single prediction date, leaving evidence acquisition outside the learning loop. We introduce AlphaBet, an agentic reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains a single LLM policy to search, reason, and report probabilities across multiple pre-resolution dates. Each dated forecast is scored by a proper scoring rule against the eventual outcome, allowing one resolved event to supervise decisions under different information states. We decompose forecasting regret into an evidence-acquisition gap and a probability-reporting gap, and show that Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO)'s standard-deviation normalization can distort the reporting target under multi-class proper scores. On GLM-4.5-Air, AlphaBet reduces the Brier score from 0.731 to 0.626 on Forecast-Dojo and from 0.612 to 0.528 on FutureX. Controlled ablations attribute these gains to multi-date training and show that they come from improvements in both information acquisition and probability reporting. Our empirical results validate that GRPO's std normalization degrades proper-scoring-rule performance while leaving top-outcome accuracy largely unchanged.
Zhaoxuan Tan University of Notre Dame, Zixuan Zhang Amazon, Haoyang Wen Amazon, Zheng Li, Rongzhi Zhang Georgia Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University and Amazon, Pei Chen Amazon, Fengran Mo, Zheyuan Liu University of Notre Dame 等 11 位作者
Personalized large language models (LLMs) tailor content to individual preferences using user profiles or histories. However, existing parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods, such as the “One-PEFT-Per-User” (OPPU) paradigm, require training a separate adapter for each user, making them computationally expensive and impractical for real-time updates. We introduce Profile-to-PEFT, a scalable framework that employs a hypernetwork, trained end-to-end, to map a user’s encoded profile directly to a full set of adapter parameters (e.g., LoRA), eliminating per-user training at deployment. This design enables instant adaptation, generalization to unseen users, and privacy-preserving local deployment. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms both prompt-based personalization and OPPU while using substantially fewer computational resources at deployment. The framework exhibits strong generalization to out-of-distribution users and maintains robustness across varying user activity levels and different embedding backbones. The proposed Profile-to-PEFT framework enables efficient, scalable, and adaptive LLM personalization suitable for large-scale applications.
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Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表