We study online allocation with increasing returns, where an uncertain number of customers arrive sequentially and can be irrevocably assigned to any product with remaining capacity. Each assignment earns a base reward plus a bonus that is nondecreasing in the number of previous assignments to the same product. Prior work has focused primarily on fixed or diminishing returns. Under increasing returns, the central challenge is that concentrating assignments can unlock large future rewards, while a different product may be preferable if arrivals stop early. We show that classical approaches, including greedy and natural LP-based rounding algorithms, can perform arbitrarily poorly, even with homogeneous bonuses. We evaluate performance through competitive ratios relative to the hindsight offline optimum. For homogeneous bonuses, we establish a tight competitive ratio of $1/2$. For arbitrary heterogeneous bonuses, however, no online algorithm can guarantee a competitive ratio greater than $1/m$, where $m$ is the number of products. By imposing discrete concavity on the bonus functions, we limit the concentration of rewards in later assignments and restore constant guarantees. Under this structure, we develop a re-solving framework that repeatedly selects a planning horizon, constructs a feasible allocation plan from the current state, and executes its assignments in a specific order. For arbitrary arrival distributions, we design distribution-oblivious deterministic and randomized algorithms with competitive ratios of $0.2537$ and $0.3864$, respectively. For known increasing-failure-rate (IFR) arrival distributions, we exploit distributional information to obtain a deterministic $1/2$-competitive algorithm.
Wentao Zhang, Yilei Zhao, Guangyan Gan, Shuo Sun, Lin William Cong
Public disclosure repositories such as SEC EDGAR support informed investment through web access to corporate filings. Supporting their review with language model agents requires discovering unstated deficiencies across related documents, acquiring missing company facts, and verifying that requested revisions satisfy evidence-backed requirements. Existing financial question-answering evaluations provide limited evidence of these interactive capabilities. We introduce \textbf{FilingLoop}, an interactive benchmark and a self-evolving agent framework for corporate disclosure review and revision. Grounded in historical U.S.\ Securities and Exchange Commission correspondence, FilingLoop reconstructs 380 predominantly IPO review tasks from 96 companies under distinct information constraints. An evaluator separate from the acting agents scores final filings and responses against 6,099 eligible requirements and audits unsupported claims and harmful revisions. Our framework couples iterative review and revision within each case with procedural learning across cases, converting requirement-level evaluation feedback into role-specific guidance without updating model weights. Updates affect only subsequent cases, allowing procedural adaptation to be assessed without retrying scored tasks. On the evaluated stream, evolution increases requirement fulfillment from 24.28\% to 27.96\% and full comment resolution from 16.90\% to 20.75\%, with a 5.8\% increase in total cost over the fixed-policy variant. FilingLoop connects the concerns an agent discovers with the company facts it obtains and the revisions it commits, providing requirement-level feedback for procedures used in later review tasks.
Huaiyu Jia, Jieshun You, Jingyu Liu, Yizhi Luo, Shuo Sun
Yield trading has emerged as a pivotal innovation in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) by decoupling principal from yield streams to enhance capital efficiency. Despite its significance, the field lacks fine-grained datasets for systematic empirical analysis. We address this gap by constructing the first large-scale benchmark dataset for Pendle, the pioneering on-chain interest rate derivatives protocol, spanning 24 months across 340 active markets with complete lifecycle observations. Our analysis reveals a structural market transition toward stablecoin-dominated "flight-to-quality" dynamics. To tackle the heavy-tailed nature of yield data, we propose Tail-MSE, an asymmetric loss function that prioritizes tail risk awareness through dynamic penalty weighting. Experiments across six state-of-the-art time series models demonstrate consistent improvements in volatility forecasting robustness, enabling the Tail-MSE Sniper strategy to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns in over half of all markets.
Prediction markets have emerged as an important mechanism for aggregating information and trading beliefs about future events. The transparency of on-chain transactions has enabled investors to identify historically profitable wallets, commonly referred to as smart money, and replicate their trading activities through copy trading. However, despite the growing popularity of smart-money tracking, systematic research on these wallets' trading behavior, profitability persistence, and the economic feasibility of following their trades remains limited. To address this gap, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study of Polymarket, the most popular decentralized prediction market, by reconstructing wallet-level trading activities from on-chain transactions, position changes, market histories, and settlement outcomes. We first examine the distribution and persistence of historical profitability using statistical analysis and logistic regression, and further characterize heterogeneous trading strategies through multidimensional behavioral profiling and unsupervised clustering. Building on these findings, we develop an evidence-grounded multi-agent research framework that integrates wallet behavior, market conditions, and real-world information to generate interpretable and verifiable explanations of individual trades. Finally, we implement a real-time copy-trading system and evaluate its practical feasibility through order-book-aware paper trading and live on-chain execution. Our findings reveal substantial behavioral heterogeneity among historically profitable wallets and highlight the challenges of translating observed trading performance into replicable economic returns.