The Polynomial-Time Low-Degree Conjecture is False
Songtao Mao
The low-degree method and its associated lower bounds are widely used to guide algorithm design and to provide evidence of computational hardness in average-case inference, high-dimensional statistics, random optimization, and related problems. This led to the low-degree conjecture, which predicts that when the low-degree advantage between a planted distribution and a uniform null distribution remains bounded, no efficient distinguisher can succeed after independent noise, provided that the planted distribution has permutation symmetry. Several works have produced counterexamples to variants of this conjecture or to versions for algorithms with higher time complexity, but the conjecture remained open in its standard binary, polynomial-time formulation. We disprove the polynomial-time low-degree conjecture by giving a family of examples. For every fixed integer $r\geq3$, we construct a permutation-invariant distribution $\mathbb{P}_n$ on simple graphs, with $\mathbb{Q}_n=G(n,1/2)$, such that every marginal of $\mathbb{P}_n$ on at most $D_n=Θ((\log n)^{r-1})$ edges is uniform. Therefore, the low-degree advantage is zero through degree $D_n$. Nevertheless, after every edge is independently resampled at a fixed positive rate, a deterministic rank test strongly distinguishes the resulting distribution from $\mathbb{Q}_n$ in linear time in the graph input size. The construction chooses a subspace of a Reed--Muller code whose nonzero polynomials have small absolute bias, selects points whose evaluation vectors have no short linear dependencies, and evaluates a random alternating bilinear form on pairs of these vectors. Our result shows that low-degree indistinguishability, a uniform null distribution, permutation invariance, and independent resampling do not by themselves imply polynomial-time hardness, and suggests that a valid general conjecture must impose an additional condition.
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