Testimony from Timelines: Evidence-Grounded Significance Testing of Temporal Clinical Hypotheses
Chengyang He, Wenlong Zhang, Koduvayur Subbalakshmi, Ping Wang
AI 速览：提出STRATA基准和ART范式，对临床时间假设的显著性检验过程进行逐步评分，揭示模型主要失败于证据选择而非结论。
Ask a language model whether sales tend to dip after a product recall, or whether one side effect tends to follow another after a vaccine, and it answers in a fluent sentence that reads like a finding, with no test behind it. Assertions about how events unfold across many cases fill the Web, and each is a temporal hypothesis that only a significance test over the right records can settle. The verifier must specify the null, select the test and decide which records bear on the hypothesis, and any of these choices can go wrong while the conclusion still comes out right. Yet benchmarks for language-model data analysis grade only the conclusion, with the relevant data handed over. We study the problem in health, where a wrong verdict is costly, and present STRATA, a benchmark that grades every decision on the way to a verdict: 8,735 hypotheses over the clinical timelines of vaccine adverse-event reports, with gold plans, evidence sets, p-values and verdicts derived under a released codebook and reproduced by a deterministic oracle. We also propose ART (articulate, retrieve, test), a staged paradigm that exposes each decision as an inspectable output. Extensive experiments with five model configurations show that systems fail mostly at choosing which records count, a verdict-evidence gap that accuracy alone conceals. ART closes most of this gap and brings a 31B open model to within 0.01 of the frontier models under the same paradigm; the frontier models succeed once given the codebook.
Muxi Zha, Yang Shang, Wenlong Zhang, Qifeng Yu, Banglei Guan
Existing event-based tracking methods typically operate in an online manner, associating tracklets across adjacent batches. However, this limited temporal window often leads to failures in challenging scenarios, such as long-term occlusions or missed detections, where broader temporal context should be incorporated for high-precision tracking. To achieve robust and accurate tracking, this paper concentrates on the event-based multi-dimensional assignment that associates tracklets across multiple batches simultaneously. Unlike image-based detectors, event-based detectors can generate multiple correct yet spatially distinct tracklets for a single object per batch. This violates the one-to-one rule in classic data association, making event-based association an underdetermined many-to-many matching problem. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to tackle this NP-hard problem. To address its underdetermined nature, we formulate the assignment problem via fuzzy logic, where pairwise tracklet correlations are quantified through multiple long-range kinematic metrics. This fuzzy design eliminates the need for hard tracking thresholds and enables multiple heterogeneous metrics to be integrated into a unified correlation. By treating tracklets as nodes and their fuzzy correlations as edges, we construct a Hierarchical Sparse Graph (HSG). Building upon the HSG, we pose assignment as a graph partition task, and employ a heuristic solution that measures vertex affinity for partitioning adaptively. The entire pipeline is training-free. Comprehensive experiments on two challenging event datasets, eTram and Ev-UAV, show that our method outperforms existing event-based and most image-based association models. Particularly, it achieves over 2$\times$ the performance of OC-SORT across all metrics in the many-to-many association scenario.
Xiangyu Zhao, Wanghan Xu Shanghai Jiaotong University, Bo Liu, Yuhao Zhou, Fenghua Ling Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Ben Fei, Xiaoyu Yue University of Sydney, Lei Bai Shanghai AI Laboratory 等 10 位作者
The rapid advancement of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) offers new opportunities for complex scientific challenges, yet their application in earth science—especially at the graduate level—remains underexplored due to a lack of benchmarks reflecting the depth and complexity of geoscientific reasoning. Existing datasets often rely on synthetic data or simple figure-caption pairs, failing to capture the nuanced reasoning required for real-world applications. To address this, we introduce MSEarth, a multimodal scientific dataset and benchmark curated from high-quality, open-access publications. Covering the five major spheres of Earth science—atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere—MSEarth features over 289K figures with refined captions enriched by contextual discussions and reasoning from the original papers. The benchmark supports tasks such as scientific figure captioning, multiple choice questions, and open-ended reasoning, providing a scalable, high-fidelity resource for developing and evaluating MLLMs in scientific reasoning.
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cs.CL · cs.CV
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Deep research is an inherently challenging task that demands both breadth and depth of thinking. It involves navigating diverse knowledge spaces and reasoning over complex, multi-step dependencies, which presents substantial challenges for agentic systems. To address this, we propose FlowSearch, a multi-agent framework that actively constructs and evolves a dynamic structured knowledge flow to drive subtask execution and reasoning. FlowSearch is capable of strategically planning and expanding the knowledge flow to enable parallel exploration and hierarchical task decomposition, while also adjusting the knowledge flow in real time based on feedback from intermediate reasoning outcomes and insights. FlowSearch achieves competitive performance on both general and scientific benchmarks, including GAIA, HLE, GPQA and TRQA, demonstrating its effectiveness in multi-disciplinary research scenarios and its potential to advance scientific discovery. The code will be available.
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cs.CL · cs.AI · cs.MA
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表