Under temporal nonstationarity, model performance rankings reverse across training horizons due to heterogeneous sensitivities to memory. While existing literature addresses adaptive lookbacks, effective model complexity, and empirical forecast evaluation in isolation, no unified framework explains the structural mechanics driving these rank reversals. We bridge this gap by deriving a model-agnostic decomposition of out-of-sample $R^2$ into target alignment, miscalibrated aggressiveness, and predictive instability. Within this framework, we mathematically characterize complexity phase boundaries, establish closed-form optimal-memory equations for ridge regression under local drift, and extend these guarantees to complex model architectures via surrogate bounds. We validate these theoretical dynamics by benchmarking 14 linear, tree-based, and neural architectures across large-scale financial panels. In doing so, our framework demonstrates that empirical model rank reversals are driven by predictable surges in miscalibrated aggressiveness, providing a rigorous mechanistic diagnosis of generalization under temporal shift.
Xingyue Huang University of Oxford, Xueying Ding, Mingxuan Ju Snap Inc., Yozen Liu Snap Inc., Neil Shah Snap Inc., Tong Zhao Snap Inc.
Softmax attention struggles with long contexts due to structural limitations: the strict sum-to-one constraint forces attention sinks on irrelevant tokens, while probability mass disperses as sequence lengths increase. We tackle these problems with Threshold Differential Attention (TDA), a sink-free attention mechanism that achieves ultra-sparsity and improved robustness at longer sequence lengths without the computational overhead of projection methods or the performance degradation caused by noise accumulation of standard rectified attention. TDA applies row-wise extreme-value thresholding with a length-dependent gate, retaining only exceedances. Inspired by the differential transformer, TDA also subtracts an inhibitory view to enhance expressivity. Theoretically, we prove that TDA controls the expected number of spurious survivors per row to O(1) and that consensus spurious matches across independent views vanish as context grows. Empirically, TDA produces >99 % exact zeros and eliminates attention sinks while maintaining competitive performance on standard and long-context benchmarks.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表
Xueying Ding, Xingyue Huang University of Oxford, Mingxuan Ju Snap Inc., Liam Collins Snap Inc., Yozen Liu Snap Inc., Leman Akoglu Amazon and Carnegie Mellon University, Neil Shah Snap Inc., Tong Zhao Snap Inc.
Large language models produce powerful text embeddings, but their causal attention mechanism restricts the flow of information from later to earlier tokens, degrading representation quality. While recent methods attempt to solve this by prepending a single summary token, they over-compress information, hence harming performance on long documents. We propose Hierarchical Token Prepending (HTP), a method that resolves two critical bottlenecks. To mitigate attention-level compression, HTP partitions the input into blocks and prepends block-level summary tokens to subsequent blocks, creating multiple pathways for backward information flow. To address readout-level over-squashing, we replace last-token pooling with mean-pooling, a choice supported by theoretical analysis. HTP achieves consistent performance gains across 11 retrieval datasets and 30 general embedding benchmarks, especially in long-context settings. As a simple, architecture-agnostic method, HTP effectively enhances both zero-shot and fine-tuned models, offering a scalable route to superior long-document embeddings.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表