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论基于预填充的解码长度预测的根本极限

On the Fundamental Limits of Prefill-Based Decoding Length Prediction

Haowen Shi, Xuzhe Yan, Fahao Chen, Peng Li

AI 速览：作者指出基于预填充阶段隐状态预测LLM解码长度的精度受自回归解码固有随机性限制，并给出理论界与基准评测建议。登录阅读完整解读 →

Predicting how many tokens a large language model (LLM) will decode, using only prefill-phase hidden states, is a key primitive for inference scheduling. We show that current benchmarks conflate predictor quality with task hardness: when the target model, dataset, or sampling configuration changes, reported accuracy collapses even though the predictor is unchanged. We trace this instability to an overlooked error source---the inherent stochasticity of autoregressive decoding---and derive bounds that every prefill-side method must obey. Our analysis treats decoding as a stopped stochastic process. The per-step stopping probability of a response is not constant but ramps up over hundreds of steps, so the decode length inherits a central limit theorem from the many local decisions that determine where a response ends; this yields per-prompt normality with an explicit error term, together with an affine variance law $σ=αμ+b$ whose slope is the coefficient of variation of the number of response segments. Empirically, the normal law reproduces the per-prompt MAE and the central mass of the decode-length distribution to within a few percent, and the residual departures from normality (mild right skew, slight excess kurtosis) are the ones predicted by the sampling-noise correction. Under fixed model, data, and sampling conditions, a broad design space of predictors (MLP, EGTP, FiLM, soft-label, and Mixture-of-Experts variants) converges to similar performance close to the bound, confirming that \emph{system error dominates model error}. We argue for a benchmarking protocol that fixes the model, data, and sampling parameters and that reports relative-error metrics alongside absolute ones. Code and analysis tools are available at https://github.com/ShwStone/DecodingPredict.

Request-Adaptive Execution for Efficient Hybrid LLM Inference

Fahao Chen, Xuzhe Yan, Qi Zhang, Peng Li, Dongxiao Yu, Song Guo

Hybrid large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising way to combine the modeling capability of the Attention mechanism with the efficiency of state space models (SSMs). However, most existing hybrid LLMs still inherit a static design philosophy: once the Attention-to-SSM layout is chosen, every request must follow the same hybrid execution. This one-layout-fits-all design is inefficient for real-world serving workloads, where different requests rely on contextual information in different ways. This paper presents Morph, a serving system that co-designs the model architecture and runtime for request-adaptive hybrid LLM inference. Its model architecture pairs Attention and SSM layers within each block and uses prefill-oriented gating to select a request-specific layout that remains fixed throughout decoding. Its serving runtime preserves batching efficiency under divergent layer choices through selective batching and enables correct prefix reuse through hybrid-aware context caching. Experiments on six datasets show that Morph achieves a better quality-efficiency trade-off than existing static hybrid baselines. System-level evaluation further shows that Morph improves the serving throughput by up to 3.87x over baselines while substantially reducing inference latency.

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