BadTime: An Effective Backdoor Attack on Multivariate Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Kunlan Xiang, Haomiao Yang, Wenbo Jiang, Haoxin Wang, Shiyue Huang, Shaofeng Li, Yijing Liu, Ji Guo
Multivariate long-term time series forecasting (MLTSF) models are increasingly deployed in critical domains such as climate, finance, and transportation. Despite their growing importance, the security of MLTSF models against backdoor attacks remains entirely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we propose BadTime, the first effective backdoor attack tailored for MLTSF. BadTime can manipulate hundreds of future predictions toward a target pattern by injecting a subtle trigger. BadTime addresses two key challenges that become particularly severe in MLTSF: (i) the rapid dilution of local triggers over long horizons, and (ii) the extreme sparsity of backdoor signals under stealth constraints. To counter dilution, BadTime leverages inter-variable correlations, temporal lags, and data-driven initialization to design a distributed, lag-aware trigger whose influence persists over long-range forecasts. To overcome sparsity, it mixes label-similar and label-dissimilar poisoned samples and adopts a decoupled backdoor training objective that explicitly up-weights the sparse backdoor signal, enabling reliable learning at a poisoning rate as low as 1%. Extensive experiments show that BadTime significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art backdoor attack on time series forecasting by extending the attackable horizon from at most 12 timesteps to 720 timesteps (a 60x improvement) and reducing the MAE on target variables by 57% on average, while changing the average clean forecasting error by less than 1%.
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