Multistep and Multivariate Time Series Explainability with GradientSHAP: A Wind Power Case Study
Robbie Southam, Zhong Fan, Ke Li
AI 速览：作者将适配后的GradientSHAP用于多变量、多步风电功率预测的可解释性分析，并通过新可视化同时给出局部与全局解释。
As the effects of climate change become increasingly apparent, the demand for renewable energy sources such as wind power continues to grow. However, renewables' variable and intermittent nature presents significant challenges in their integration into energy grids. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool to address these issues. Still, its adoption in the energy sector has been hindered by the opacity of many AI models, which often function as black boxes. This paper introduces a carefully adapted GradientSHAP approach to provide interpretability for multivariate, multistep wind power forecasting -- a largely underexplored area. This capability is critical for day-ahead grid management and, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply GradientSHAP in the context of wind power forecasting. To address the inherent dimensionality, we developed novel visualizations that deliver both local and global explanations, uncovering intricate relationships between environmental factors, site-specific conditions, and temporal dynamics. While GradientSHAP is not an out-of-the-box solution, our findings demonstrate that, with thoughtful handling of SHAP values and domain expertise, it can offer valuable insights into model behaviour, supporting more informed and trustworthy decision-making. Nevertheless, its complexity poses challenges for practical implementation. Future research should focus on streamlining these interpretability methods to make them more actionable for routine deployment in critical energy applications.
Wenrui Cai, Chengyu Wang Independent Researcher and Alibaba Group, Junbing Yan Alibaba Group, Jun Huang Alibaba Group and independent researcher, Xiangzhong Fang Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Tasks such as mathematical problem solving and coding require models to leverage chain-of-thought (CoT) processes, enabling human-like reasoning strategies. However, the advancement of large reasoning models (LRMs) is hindered by the lack of comprehensive CoT datasets. Existing resources often fail to provide extensive reasoning problems with coherent CoT processes distilled from multiple teacher models, and do not account for multifaceted properties describing the internal characteristics of CoTs.To address these challenges, we introduce OmniThought, a large-scale dataset featuring 2 million CoT processes generated and validated by multiple powerful LRMs. Each CoT process in OmniThought is annotated with novel Reasoning Verbosity (RV) and Cognitive Difficulty (CD) scores, which characterize the appropriateness of CoT verbosity and the cognitive difficulty level for models to comprehend these reasoning processes. We further establish a self-reliant pipeline to curate this dataset. Extensive experiments using Qwen2.5 and Qwen3 of various sizes demonstrate the positive impact of our RV and CD scores on LRM training effectiveness. Based on the OmniThought dataset, we train and release a series of high-performing LRMs with enhanced reasoning abilities and optimized CoT output length. Our contributions advance the development of LRMs across different scales for solving complex reasoning tasks.
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cs.CL
Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers) · 2026 · 正式发表